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Climate Change Assessment for Water Resources Region 03 South Atlantic -Gulf focused on extreme precipitation and temperature projections. Model projections of climate at the end of the century (2080 — 2099) were compared to historical data for the period 1980 — 1999. For the general southeastern U.S., inclusive of the South Atlantic -Gulf Region, the authors identified small increases in the projected extreme temperature range (annual high minus annual low temperature), a moderate increase in a heat wave duration index (increase of 3 to 4 days per year that temperatures continuously exceeds the historical norm by at least 5 °C), and a moderate increase in the number of warm nights (6 to 7% increase in the percentage of times in the year when minimum temperature is above the 901' percentile of the climatological distribution for the given calendar year), compared to the baseline period. Similar results are presented by Kunkel et al. (2010). In this study, two different downscaled GCMs were applied to the continental U.S., assuming high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios (A2 and AIF), with a focus on summer heat wave occurrence and intensity. For the South Atlantic -Gulf Region, projections indicate a 3 to 5 °C increase in three -day heat wave temperatures and a 50 to 80 day increase in the annual number of heat wave days for a 2090 planning horizon compared to a recent historical baseline. At a regional scale, Qi et al. (2009) used two GCMs (CGC1 and HadCMSul2) in combination with hydrologic modeling to project streamflow changes in the Trent River (North Carolina). Temperature projections from these two climate models (Figure 3.4) show increases of approximately 2 to 4 °C by the end of the 21" century for their study area. �r Jj3 �_�e,._ __mw�W._.�..._... _naa a._.� �. _.��_n__ ��..w. _.�... �. _..a.. -.. fonts ..:.,. aG,, A, 'I 'T ;'I "k „m �1:Wfp. ,,.n0 2"'.13t aP0ry0 p'Y;;Y,P. w 1r,d ✓Cdr o Pe,0 fJ . wd,j"'1 . :,%T:ry 2C'TJ.{ nib, w: "Mrzf.'s 11 10 w'�' " Figure 3.4. Figure 3.4. Projected annual average air temperature, Trent River basin, North Carolina, 1995 — 2100. (Qi et al., 2009). As part of a water quality study of the Upper Pearl River watershed in Mississippi, Jayakody et al. (2013) applied a single GCM, across three different emissions scenarios (A2, B1, and AIB), to project future climate and potential impacts on water quality. The Upper Pearl watershed is located at the western edge of the South Atlantic -Gulf Region. Climate projections presented in this study show an increase in maximum and minimum annual air temperature in the watershed of c. 2 to 3 °C for their 2050 and 2075 planning horizons. Projections also point toward an extended summer peak temperature period (moving from July — August to June — September). USACE Institute for Water Resources 23 January 9, 2015