CFE agenda 091117 - Laserfiche WebLink

Browse Search

Climate Change Assessment for Water Resources Region 03 South Atlantic -Gulf century, with a high level of consensus across models and modeling assumptions. There is much less consensus on future patterns of precipitation. Results of studies inclusive of the South Atlantic -Gulf Region typically fall in line with both of these generalizations. Maximum air temperature projections were investigated by Liu et al. (2013) using a single GCM and assuming an A2 greenhouse gas emissions scenario (worst case). The results of their study, specific to the South Atlantic -Gulf Region, show a projected increase in winter and spring maximum air temperature of about 2 °C for a 2055 planning horizon compared to a baseline period of 1971 — 2000 (Figure 3.1). They show projected increases of up to 3.5 °C for summer and fall temperatures. rM M MW Figure 3.1. Projected changes in seasonal maximum air temperature, °C, 2041 - 2070 vs. 1971 - 2000. The South Atlantic -Gulf Region is within the red oval (Liu et al., 2013). Similar results are presented by Scherer and Diffenbaugh (2014). These authors apply a multi- member ensemble GCM, assuming an A I B (middle of the road) emissions scenario, to the continental U.S. For the southeast portion of the country, including the South Atlantic -Gulf Region, model projections indicate steadily increasing air temperatures throughout the 21st century for both summer and winter seasons (Figure 3.2). By 2090, projections show an increase of 3.9 °C in the summer and 3.2 °C in the winter, compared to a 1980 — 2009 baseline period. These results agree well with those described previously for Liu et al., (2013). USACE Institute for Water Resources 21 January 9, 2015