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Climate Change Assessment for Water Resources Region 03 South Atlantic -Gulf significant increasing trends were identified for the region in annual and fall precipitation for multiple locations in the area (Figure 2.8). There were even more locations within the HUC, however, where no statistically significant trends in precipitation were identified. u �F°tr'11nc b b )Yo o A,NlOR t � IIIIIIIII Ajni%Ilo' 11 oAioo6uA t,,)4ko p� q A�nnm i P & b;d u'Il ru"ny"1a Figure 2.8. Historical trends in precipitation (P) and streamflow (Q), 1948 — 1997. The South Atlantic -Gulf Region is within the red oval (Small et al., 2006). Li et al. (2011) investigated the occurrence of anomalous summer precipitation in the southeast U.S., including the South Atlantic -Gulf Region, as defined by deviation from the mean. They attribute apparent trends in anomalies to changes in the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), which in turn is attributed to climate change. As above, results indicate a general increase in the frequency and magnitude of anomalous summer precipitation (Figure 2.9). These results are generally supported by the findings of Villarini et al. (2013). These authors identified statistically significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends in the frequency of occurrence of heavy rainfall in a region inclusive of the western edge of the South Atlantic -Gulf Region (Mississippi and Alabama) for multiple climate stations with at least 50 years of historical record. While significant trends were identified for a number of stations in the region, an even greater number of stations in the South Atlantic -Gulf Region exhibited no significant trends. USACE Institute for Water Resources 15 January 9, 2015 � ; IIIIIIIIII ei NJ e aP 1111111 Ilool� IIII �.,Ip u �F°tr'11nc b b )Yo o A,NlOR t � IIIIIIIII Ajni%Ilo' 11 oAioo6uA t,,)4ko p� q A�nnm i P & b;d u'Il ru"ny"1a Figure 2.8. Historical trends in precipitation (P) and streamflow (Q), 1948 — 1997. The South Atlantic -Gulf Region is within the red oval (Small et al., 2006). Li et al. (2011) investigated the occurrence of anomalous summer precipitation in the southeast U.S., including the South Atlantic -Gulf Region, as defined by deviation from the mean. They attribute apparent trends in anomalies to changes in the North Atlantic Subtropical High (NASH), which in turn is attributed to climate change. As above, results indicate a general increase in the frequency and magnitude of anomalous summer precipitation (Figure 2.9). These results are generally supported by the findings of Villarini et al. (2013). These authors identified statistically significant (p < 0.05) increasing trends in the frequency of occurrence of heavy rainfall in a region inclusive of the western edge of the South Atlantic -Gulf Region (Mississippi and Alabama) for multiple climate stations with at least 50 years of historical record. While significant trends were identified for a number of stations in the region, an even greater number of stations in the South Atlantic -Gulf Region exhibited no significant trends. USACE Institute for Water Resources 15 January 9, 2015