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Force of the propaganda films that followed, films that doubled as advertisements for imperial- American industrial might; and among his last
<br />memories the coverage of the desperate signing of the Paris climate accords on cable news, ten weeks before he died of lung cancer last July. Or
<br />my mother's: born in 1945, to German Jews fleeing the smokestacks through which their relatives were incinerated, now enjoying her 72nd year in
<br />an American commodity paradise, a paradise supported by the supply chains of an industrialized developing world. She has been smoking for 57
<br />of those years, unfiltered.
<br />Or the scientists'. Some of the men who first identified a changing climate (and given the generation, those who became famous were men) are still
<br />alive; a few are even still working. Wally Broecker is 84 years old and drives to work at the Lamont - Doherty Earth Observatory across the Hudson
<br />every day from the Upper West Side. Like most of those who first raised the alarm, he believes that no amount of emissions reduction alone can
<br />meaningfully help avoid disaster. Instead, he puts his faith in carbon capture — untested technology to extract carbon dioxide from the atmosphere,
<br />which Broecker estimates will cost at least several trillion dollars — and various forms of "geoengineering," the catchall name for a variety of moon-
<br />shot technologies far - fetched enough that many climate scientists prefer to regard them as dreams, or nightmares, from science fiction. He is
<br />especially focused on what's called the aerosol approach — dispersing so much sulfur dioxide into the atmosphere that when it converts to sulfuric
<br />acid, it will cloud a fifth of the horizon and reflect back 2 percent of the sun's rays, buying the planet at least a little wiggle room, heat -wise. "Of
<br />course, that would make our sunsets very red, would bleach the sky, would make more acid rain,' he says. "But you have to look at the magnitude
<br />of the problem. You got to watch that you don't say the giant problem shouldn't be solved because the solution causes some smaller problems." He
<br />won't be around to see that, he told me. 'But in your lifetime ..."
<br />Jim Hansen is another member of this godfather generation. Born in 1941, he became a climatologist at the University of Iowa, developed the
<br />groundbreaking "Zero Model" for projecting climate change, and later became the head of climate research at NASA, only to leave under pressure
<br />when, while still a federal employee, he filed a lawsuit against the federal government charging inaction on warming (along the way he got arrested
<br />a few times for protesting, too). The lawsuit, which is brought by a collective called Our Children's Trust and is often described as "kids versus
<br />climate change,' is built on an appeal to the equal - protection clause, namely, that in failing to take action on warming, the government is violating it
<br />by imposing massive costs on future generations; it is scheduled to be heard this winter in Oregon district court. Hansen has recently given up on
<br />solving the climate problem with a carbon tax alone, which had been his preferred approach, and has set about calculating the total cost of the
<br />additional measure of extracting carbon from the atmosphere.
<br />Hansen began his career studying Venus, which was once a very Earth -like planet with plenty of life- supporting water before runaway climate
<br />change rapidly transformed it into an arid and uninhabitable sphere enveloped in an unbreathable gas; he switched to studying our planet by 30,
<br />wondering why he should be squinting across the solar system to explore rapid environmental change when he could see it all around him on the
<br />planet he was standing on. "When we wrote our first paper on this, in 1981," he told me, "I remember saying to one of my co- authors, 'This is going
<br />to be very interesting. Sometime during our careers, we're going to see these things beginning to happen."'
<br />Several of the scientists I spoke with proposed global warming as the solution to Fermi's famous paradox, which asks, If the universe is so big,
<br />then why haven't we encountered any other intelligent life in it? The answer, they suggested, is that the natural life span of a civilization may be
<br />only several thousand years, and the life span of an industrial civilization perhaps only several hundred. In a universe that is many billions of years
<br />old, with star systems separated as much by time as by space, civilizations might emerge and develop and burn themselves up simply too fast to
<br />ever find one another, Peter Ward, a charismatic paleontologist among those responsible for discovering that the planet's mass extinctions were
<br />caused by greenhouse gas, calls this the "Great Filter ": "Civilizations rise, but there's an environmental filter that causes them to die off again and
<br />disappear fairly quickly," he told me. "If you look at planet Earth, the filtering we've had in the past has been in these mass extinctions." The mass
<br />extinction we are now living through has only just begun; so much more dying is coming.
<br />And yet, improbably, Ward is an optimist. So are Broecker and Hansen and many of the other scientists I spoke to. We have not developed much
<br />of a religion of meaning around climate change that might comfort us, or give us purpose, in the face of possible annihilation. But climate scientists
<br />have a strange kind of faith: We will find a way to forestall radical warming, they say, because we must.
<br />It is not easy to know how much to be reassured by that bleak certainty, and how much to wonder whether it is another form of delusion; for global
<br />warming to work as parable, of course, someone needs to survive to tell the story. The scientists know that to even meet the Paris goals, by 2050,
<br />carbon emissions from energy and industry, which are still rising, will have to fall by half each decade; emissions from land use (deforestation, cow
<br />farts, etc.) will have to zero out; and we will need to have invented technologies to extract, annually, twice as much carbon from the atmosphere as
<br />the entire planet's plants now do. Nevertheless, by and large, the scientists have an enormous confidence in the ingenuity of humans — a
<br />confidence perhaps bolstered by their appreciation for climate change, which is, after all, a human invention, too. They point to the Apollo project,
<br />the hole in the ozone we patched in the 1980s, the passing of the fear of mutually assured destruction. Now we've found a way to engineer our
<br />own doomsday, and surely we will find a way to engineer our way out of it, one way or another. The planet is not used to being provoked like this,
<br />and climate systems designed to give feedback over centuries or millennia prevent us — even those who may be watching closely —from fully
<br />imagining the damage done already to the planet. But when we do truly see the world we've made, they say, we will also find a way to make it
<br />livable. For them, the alternative is simply unimaginable.
<br />*This article appears in the July 10, 2017, issue of New York Magazine.
<br />*This article has been updated to provide context for the recent news reports about revisions to a satellite data set, to more accurately reflect the
<br />rate of warming during the Paleocene – Eocene Thermal Maximum, to clarify a reference to Peter Brannen's The Ends of the World, and to make
<br />clear that James Hansen still supports a carbon -tax based approach to emissions.
<br />Rehaed
<br />The Uninhabitable Earth, Annotated Edition
<br />CONNECT:
<br />2017, New York Media LLC.
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