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a cause of barrier migration on the Core Banks in North Carolina (Riggs and Ames 2003, Gutierrez et al. 2009) (Figure 3 -11). Maritime forests and shrub communities have been identified as highly sensitive habitats in the NC WAP. These habitats are mainly found along barrier islands and the mainland coast on stabilized upper dunes and flats protected from salt spray. These habitats are important breeding and migration stopover points for many migratory birds, and key breeding areas for declining populations of the eastern painted buntings, as well as for several snake species (NC WAP). All of the barrier island maritime forest /shrub communities occur in very dynamic environments and will be susceptible to sea level rise. Coastal wetlands are also highly vulnerable to sea level rise, and loss of this habitat has the poten- tial to adversely affect a number of priority species listed in the NC WAP. Estimates suggest there are between 3.1 and 3.9 million acres of wetland in Photo: North Carolina Derision of Coastal Management pp/)6qP�" / %E(% /: /E ",° ll:l(y' 1(,ll('( f E(G l(,l (le�i�)c r (," )i (, (f( }c/ a l%'t�u/i ''/// (,r Cb /Z'He ,jxrF ie, ,lr(ll ire f , ')e1' C IAA l., coastal North Carolina, including marshes, swamps, forested wetlands, pocosins, and other wetland habi- tats (Street et al. 2005). Vertical accretion rates in North Carolina have been able to keep up with the rate of sea level rise (Feldman et al. 2009), however there are some wetlands that have been unable to vertically accrete at a pace to match current rates of sea level rise. Feldman et al. (2009) suggest that North Carolinas lower coastal plain fringe wetlands may not survive with the 10 mm per year of relative sea level rise scenario described by Day et al. (2005) for the Mississippi Delta region. Pocosin wetlands generally accrete at a rate of approximately one to two mm per year when in their natural state (Craft and Richardson 1998 and Moorhead and Brin- son 1995 in Feldman et al. 2009). Human altered drainage patterns appear to be limiting their verti- cal accretion, which, in combination with saltwater intrusion, could cause subsidence and conversion to open water (Pearsall and Poulter 2005). As sea level rises further and waters with higher salt content reach the Albemarle- Pamlico peninsula, the ability of peat -based wetlands to keep up is unlikely (Box 3 -3, Feldman et al. 2009). Higher scenarios of sea level rise may lead to an increase in inlets and segmen- tation or disintegration of barrier islands leading, potentially resulting in a change from a non -tidal to a tidal regime with increased salinity. These changes would fundamentally alter the structure of current ecosystems and would lead to increased erosion and impacts on wetlands (Riggs and Ames 2003). Chapter 3: Projected Impacts of Climate Change in North Carolina 71