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The analysis of model projections reviewed by the U.S. Global Change Research Program gives simi- lar results. Most climate models agree that, at a continental scale, northern latitudes are likely to see increases in precipitation and southern areas will see decreases in precipitation, but there is less confi- dence in where this transition will occur (Karl et al. 2009). North Carolina falls in this transition area, but it is important to note that even if increases in precipitation occur, these may not offset increased evaporation and water loss resulting from higher temperatures projected to occur in the state. As a result, the frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts are likely to continue to increase (Karl et al. 2009). ,27 1 tat, I it arlr I l} G,I;,a l I-1(ts "ol!.; e it <; as l H ah/t atsr rir IIVI a,1Ir Bogs, wetlands and flood plain communities are among those most likely to be impacted by even moderate changes to precipitation regimes. In North Carolina, many of these communities are already threatened by extensive land conversion and other modifications that alter hydrologic regimes (NC WAP). Changes in precipitation have the potential to exacerbate these issues through seasonal shifts in precipitation patterns as well as changes in the frequency of high - intensity events. For exam- ple, willow flycatchers (Enpiclonax trailii), a SGCN species in the NC WAP, are sensitive to flooding of nest sites during the breeding period from June to August (NatureServe 2009). Small pools and wetlands that occur in depressions and are flooded for only a portion of the year are also important sites for breeding amphibians, in particular ambystomid salamanders. These habi- tat types may be found associated with bogs, small wetlands and floodplain forests across the state. Several ambystomids are identified as priority species Photo: www.tbinkstock.com in North Carolina, and are sensitive to the timing of vernal pool formation and precipitation cues for breeding. For example, spotted salamanders (Arnbys- tom a maculatum) begin their migration to breeding areas in response to rain and warming temperatures in the spring (Grace and Church 2003 in Nature- Serve 2009). Marbled salamanders (A. opercum) rely on breeding sites that lack standing water in the fall but are inundated by fall rains and hold stand- ing water through spring. For marbled salaman- ders, timing of larval hatch is dependent on when the pond -basin nesting area is flooded (NatureServe 2009). Pechmann et al. (199 1) reported that breed- ing populations of mole salamander (A. talpoicleum), eastern tiger salamander (A. trigrinum tigrinum) and ornate chorus frog (Pseuclacris ornata) in South Carolina were reduced during years of drought due to low numbers of breeding females and recruitment Chapter 3: Projected Impacts of Climate Change in North Carolina 63