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Fig. 3. Breeding and nesting phase of marine turtles. Dotted <br />grey arrows represent the potential climate variables and <br />their indirect effects, + or - indicate likely direction of effect <br />Figure 3 -4. Climatic factors affecting sea turtles <br />during nesting and breeding (Source: Hawkes et <br />al. 2009, © Inter - Research, used with permission). <br />Increases in sand temperature due to climate change <br />may affect reproductive success and hatchling devel- <br />opment, as well as the sex ratios of offspring produced <br />(Hawkes et al. 2009). <br />Marine turtles typically incubate successfully only <br />between 77 and 95T (Ackerman 1997 in Hawkes <br />et al. 1997). In general, the higher end of this <br />temperature range produces female embryos while <br />lower temperatures result in male turtles (e.g., Hays <br />et al. 2003). An equal number of males and females <br />are produced at the `pivotal temperature' which, for <br />loggerhead turtles, occurs between 82.4 to 87.8 °F <br />(Mrosovsky 1988). Projected future increases in <br />temperature could result in biased sex ratios towards <br />females, although behavioral changes, such as choos- <br />ing shaded nesting sites, nesting earlier, or nesting <br />later in the season, could maintain mixed sex ratios <br />(Hawkes et al. 2009). Whether marine turtles will be <br />able to adapt either behaviorally or physiologically <br />to increased temperatures for incubation, remains <br />unclear. <br />Aquatic habitats and species are expected to be signif- <br />icantly impacted by warming climate trends. The <br />Southeast has the highest aquatic species diversity in <br />the entire United States, including significant taxo- <br />nomic diversity of fishes, mollusks, and crayfish (NC <br />WAP). A significant proportion of these groups are <br />already known to be at risk in North Carolina, with <br />83 fish species, 43 mussel species, 21 crayfish species, <br />and 10 snail species identified as priorities for conser- <br />vation in the NC WAP. Major threats identified in <br />the NC WAP include pollution, hydrologic altera- <br />tion, physical habitat manipulation, and introduc- <br />tion of non - indigenous species, many of which are <br />likely to be exacerbated by climate change. In the <br />Piedmont and Mountains, a number of river basins <br />are already extensively modified by dams (Figure 3 -5) <br />and impoundments, further limiting species ability <br />to move to more suitable habitats under changing <br />climatic conditions. <br />f <br />Photo: Cheoah Dam, www. learnnc. orgld lmultimedi&7836 <br />58 Chapter 3: Projected Impacts of Climate Change in North Carolina <br />