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<br />In North Carolina, a number of important species
<br />may be impacted by increasing temperatures. Shifts
<br />in the timing of seasons may cause asynchrony in
<br />species interactions or trophic mismatches. Warmer
<br />and dryer years may alter the timing of insect emer-
<br />gence or the time of blooming (reviewed in Parme-
<br />san 2006). High elevation communities may be
<br />particularly at risk given projected climate warm-
<br />ing in the region. Spruce -fir forests are projected
<br />to move northward as physiological tolerances are
<br />exceeded across its southern range, which is limited
<br />by summer heat and drought (Figure 3 -3, Iverson
<br />and Prasad 2001). Research from Iverson and Prasad
<br />(2001), suggests that spruce -fir habitat could be easi-
<br />ly extirpated from the eastern U.S. as temperatures
<br />increase. In addition, changes in seasonal temper-
<br />atures may allow pest species to survive during
<br />warmer winters and thus exacerbate the threat of
<br />insect outbreaks (Logan et al. 2003). An increase
<br />in insect outbreaks may make spruce -fir habitats in
<br />North Carolina particularly vulnerable to the effects
<br />of climate change. Spruce -fir habitats provide critical
<br />habitat for a number of priority birds, including a
<br />subspecies of brown creeper (Certhia americans) and
<br />northern saw -whet owl (Aegolius acacdicus), that may
<br />be endemic to the high peaks of the Southern Blue
<br />Ridge Ecoregion (NCWRC 2005 ).
<br />Reptiles and amphibians can also be very sensitive to
<br />changes in temperature. An ectotherms' life histo-
<br />ry traits, behavior and physiology are all strongly
<br />influenced by environmental temperature (Standora
<br />and Spotila 1985, Janzen 1994). For example, in a
<br />study on Eastern red - spotted newt (Notophthahnus
<br />viricdescens), Rohr and Madison (2003) found that
<br />elevated dehydration risk may compromise anti -
<br />predator behavior and exacerbate amphibian popu-
<br />lation declines. Although they spend the majority
<br />of their lives at sea, marine turtles have a terrestrial
<br />e a u
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<br />l%
<br />component of their life cycle, returning to land each
<br />year to nest. Sand temperature during egg incuba-
<br />tion is a critical factor in embryo development, hatch-
<br />ing success, and hatchling sex ratios (Figure 3 -4).
<br />Increases in sand temperature may therefore affect
<br />reproductive success and hatchling development, as
<br />well as the sex ratios of offspring produced (Hawkes
<br />et al. 2009). Increased water and air temperatures
<br />may also lead to earlier onset of egg - laying and range
<br />expansion northward. For example, warmer temper-
<br />atures in past interglacial periods have facilitated the
<br />expansion of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta)
<br />into higher latitudes (Bowen et al. 1994), and leath-
<br />erback sea turtle (Dermochelys coriacea) nests are now
<br />being recorded at their most northerly locations in a
<br />decade of monitoring (Ration et al. 2003). Logger-
<br />head sea turtles have shown earlier nesting by 12 to
<br />18 days in response to 1.8 °F of warming (Hawkes
<br />et al. 2007). Both loggerhead and leatherback sea
<br />turtles are identified as priority species in North
<br />Carolina and are internationally classified as endan-
<br />gered and critically endangered respectively (Marine
<br />Turtle Specialist Group 1996, Sarti Martinez 2000).
<br />56 Chapter 3: Projected Impacts of Climate Change in North Carolina
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