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(though regional studies provide a useful framework for assessing the impacts of climate change on fish and wildlife across the Southeast, state - specific information will be criti- cal for updating the North Carolina Wildlife Action Plan (NC WAP) (NCWRC 2005). Fortunately, a number of climate modeling and scenario tools are available to project potential shifts in temperature and precipitation in the state. In this chapter, we apply climate modeling scenarios to map state - specific projected temperature and precipitation changes. We also provide a review of recent studies on projected sea - level -rise for the coast of North Carolina. In each section, we use the information from the projections to identify a broad subset of species and habitats in North Carolina that may be particularly susceptible to climate change impacts in the state. l,u 1 fror NoII "th ° a1a"'oill'no Climate Wizard (Zganjar et al. 2009) is a useful mapping tool that can be used to derive temperature projections for North Carolina for the middle and end of this century. This user - friendly tool allows users to access past changes in climate, as well as project future changes in rainfall and precipitation in a given area based on available climate models statis- tically downscaled to a 12 km2 resolution (Maurer et al. 2007). The projections presented in this section are based on multi -model ensemble averages of 16 global circulation models (GCMs) using the high emissions scenario (A2) from the IPCC. Estimates of mean temperature departures are provided for mid - century (2040 — 2069) and end of century (2070- 2099). in a Based on projections using Climate Wizard, average yearly temperatures across the state are expected to increase 3.5 to 4.7 °F by mid century. The areas of highest temperature increase will be in the north and west of the state and in many of the mountainous regions. Coastal areas are also projected to experience significant yearly average temperature increases, but to a lesser degree than inland areas. By the end of the century, projections show increases in annual aver- age temperatures of 5 to 6T, again with the greatest increases in the north and west portions of the state (Figure 3 -1). In addition to changes in average annual tempera- ture, seasonal, monthly, and maximum/ minimum daily temperatures can sometimes provide more meaningful projections for assessing the impact of temperature changes on species and ecosystems. Climate Wizard can easily be used to complete this type of analysis. Figure 3 -2 shows projected change in temperature in North Carolina by season for the end of the century. The largest increase in temperature (7.8 °F) is projected to occur in the summer months between June and August, while the lowest increases in temperature are projected to occur during the fall and winter. Other tempera- ture related variables, such as number of frost free days or length of the growing season are also biologically important. Although, Climate Wizard does not provide these outputs directly, many climate modelers are interested in working with state agencies and other partners to identify the data and information needs required to facilitate climate change adaptation for wildlife. University research- ers as well as many of the federal initiatives are identi- fied in Appendix E. Chapter 3: Projected Impacts of Climate Change in North Carolina 53