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Table 2 -4. Studies that have modeled the impacts of climate change on hydrology at the basin -scale (A) and examples specific to the Southeast (B). A. Basin -scale models (expanded from studies reviewed in Praskievicz and Chang 2009) Author(s) GCM(s) Study period Hydrological Results Study basin model 2090s Frei et al. (2002) HadCM2; 2020s Thomthwaite By 2080s: Increase of 12% in runoff under New York (Catskills) CGCMal 2050s conceptual HadCM2; Decrease of 30% in runoff strea mfl ow. 2080s water balance under CGCMal period, decreased runoff in later time 2070 -2099 modell Loukas et al. (2002) CGCMal British Columbia Eckhard and Ulbrich Ensemble of 5 (2003) models Central Europe Christensen and Lettenmeier (2006) Colorado River Basin Jha et al. (2004) Upper Mississippi Basin Jha et al. (2004) Upper Mississippi Basin Thodsen (2007) Denmark Bae et al (2007) South Korea Ensemble of 11 models 2080 -2100 UBC Water- Rainfall- dominated basin: increased fall/ 51% increase in surface runoff; 43% shed Modell winter runoff, decreased spring /summer runoff; Snowmelt- dominated basin: earli- er spring peak, increased winter runoff 2090s SWAT G3 Increased winter runoff; earlier spring SWAT3 peak; decreased summer runoff and groundwater recharge. Small effects on flow from the south; North: increased mean annual groundwater recharge and strea mfl ow. 2010 -2039 VIC3 Runoff essentially unchanged in first time 2040 -2069 period, decreased runoff in later time 2070 -2099 periods. Average total basin reservoir storage generally declined. HadCM2 2040 -2049 SWAT3 51% increase in surface runoff; 43% increase in groundwater recharge; 50% increase in total water yield HadCM2 2040 -2049 SWAT3 South of the Baltic Basin: reduced river flow from the south; North: increased river flow HIRHAM RCM 2071 -2100 NAM2 River discharges increased 12% on average. Monthly river discharges increased from December to August and decreased in September and October ECHO -G; NCAR/ 1960 -2100 PRMS1 Northern regions: increased runoff; Southern regions: decreased runoff. Monthly variation: decreased runoff in spring and summer; increased runoff in fall and winter.