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CFE agenda 091117
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CFE agenda 091117
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9/11/2017
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CFE minutes 091117
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Under warmer climatic conditions, the habitat avail- <br />able to cool water species is expected to decrease and <br />the distributions of these species will become more <br />spatially fragmented. Rahel et al. (1996) investigated <br />potential habitat loss in relation to climate warm- <br />ing for salmonids occurring in streams of the North <br />Platte River drainage in Wyoming. Under summer <br />air temperature increases of 1.8 -9 °F, they estimated <br />that 7 -76% of habitat would be lost, depending on <br />the approach and amount of warming. In addition, <br />population fragmentation was expected to occur as <br />cold water populations were restricted to increasingly <br />higher elevations. <br />Eaton and Sheller (1996) looked at the effects of <br />climate warming on 57 species of fishes in streams <br />across the U.S., using temperature projections based <br />on the Canadian Climate Center GCM (CCC <br />GCM). They found a nearly 50% reduction in <br />thermal habitat for cold and cool water species and <br />a 14% decrease in habitat for warm water species. <br />Overall, species with smaller ranges were projected <br />to exhibit the largest habitat losses. Cold and cool <br />water fish were least affected in locations that were <br />higher in latitude or elevation. Additional studies on <br />stream systems have confirmed significant effects on <br />cold water fishes, but vary in their assessments of the <br />impacts on cool and warm water fishes. For exam- <br />ple, Mohseni et al. (2003) used a different approach <br />to examine the impacts on climate change for the <br />same set of 57 species used by Eaton and Sheller <br />(1996). The results of their analysis projected a 36% <br />decrease in cold water fish habitat and a northward <br />shift in range. Changes in habitat for cool and warm <br />water fishes was dependent on the assumptions for <br />minimum temperature tolerance (32 °F vs. 35.6 °F ) <br />and ranged between a 12 -15% decrease in habitat for <br />cool water fishes and a 0 -31% increase in habitat for <br />warm water fishes. Maximum temperature tolerance <br />was not expected to have a significant effect on warm <br />water habitat due to evaporative cooling of streams <br />(Mohseni et al. 2003). <br />Recognizing that both temperature and dissolved <br />oxygen concentrations control the distribution of <br />fish species in lakes, Stefan et al. (2001) simulated <br />changes in both factors and examined impacts on <br />fish habitat in North American lakes in response to <br />projected climate warming. Using a doubled CO2 <br />concentration scenario under the CCC GCM, their <br />results suggest that climate warming will reduce the <br />geographic area in which lakes have suitable cold and <br />cool water habitat by 45% and 30% respectively. <br />Suitable habitat for coldwater fish was likely to be <br />restricted to deep lakes along the northern border <br />of the U.S. In the south central and southeastern <br />states, summer kill of cool water fish was expected <br />to be more prevalent. However, warm water fish <br />were expected to benefit in all lake types (Stefan <br />et al. 2001). <br />In rivers and streams with adequate dispersal corri- <br />dors, species at the southern extent of their geograph- <br />ical distribution may shift their distributions <br />northward into cooler habitats (Allan et al. 2005). <br />For lakes, differences in surface area, depth, lati- <br />tude, and elevation are all factors that will influence <br />response to climate change. Water levels are likely <br />to be reduced in regions that experience increased <br />evapotranspiration brought about by higher temper- <br />atures and longer growing periods, unless offset by <br />increased precipitation. As in streams, warmer air <br />temperatures will raise water temperatures, especially <br />in smaller and shallower lakes. <br />In ponds and lakes deep enough to exhibit summer <br />thermal stratification, warm water habitat will <br />increase in depth, potentially forcing cool water <br />organisms into deeper waters (Allan et al. 2005). At <br />the same time, bottom waters may become depleted <br />of oxygen due to higher decomposition of algae and <br />organic matter settling out of warmer, more produc- <br />tive surface waters. Cool water habitat may there- <br />fore be constrained by increased warm water volumes <br />above and oxygen depletion below (Figure 2 -3). <br />
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