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/J <br />f 1Ni i <br />1 <br />a- <br />rz <br />can be selected to span variability in life history <br />traits, conservation status, or other testable hypoth- <br />eses that might inform future assessments. The <br />vulnerability assessment process generally follows <br />the series of steps outlined below (Turner et al. <br />2003, Schroter et al. 2005, Fuentes et al. 2010, <br />Glick and Stein 2010): <br />1. Define the study areas together with stake- <br />holders — Identify spatial and temporal scales <br />appropriate to management objectives with <br />stakeholders and recognize that the scale of the <br />assessment needs to match the scale of decision - <br />making. Consider how a conservation target <br />(species or system) may respond differently at <br />other scales. Select an assessment approach based <br />on targets, user needs, and available resources. <br />2. Gather data and identify the climatic process- <br />es that can affect the species or ecosystems of <br />interest — Review the literature, contact experts, <br />and spend time with stakeholders to identify <br />the main climate change impacts that affect <br />the species or conservation targets of interest. <br />Hypothesize how these impacts will affect the <br />target. For example, in assessing the vulnerabil- <br />ity of sea turtles to climate change, knowledge <br />of nesting habitat requirements, physiological <br />tolerances, and mechanisms of sex determina- <br />tion would allow the identification of important <br />climate change factors affecting reproductive <br />success. In this case, increased sand temperatures <br />may alter hatchling sex ratios and survival, while <br />sea level rise and increased storm severity may <br />cause loss and /or alteration of nesting beaches <br />and egg mortality. <br />3. Select climate scenarios and data — Given the <br />uncertainty in the levels of future greenhouse <br />gas emissions and resulting climate changes it <br />is generally a good idea to use more than one <br />climate change scenario to assess vulnerability. <br />For example, practitioners may use projected <br />climate changes based on a high future emissions <br />scenario and a more moderate future emissions <br />scenario with a lower degree of resulting climate <br />changes. Scenarios should be selected and <br />discussed with all stakeholders in order to assure <br />transparency. The assumptions underlying any <br />projection used in the vulnerability assessment <br />should be outlined explicitly and communicated <br />with stakeholders. <br />4. Develop a "causal model' of vulnerability — <br />Stakeholders should work together to develop <br />a simple model or flow chart that depicts the <br />factors affecting the sensitivity and exposure of <br />a target to climate change and how these factors <br />contribute to vulnerability. These factors should <br />include both climate change factors and ongo- <br />ing stressors that affect a species vulnerability to <br />climate change. <br />5. Operationalize the vulnerability model — Esti- <br />mate overall vulnerability of the target based on <br />the factors identified in the causal model and the <br />climate change scenarios. Document levels of <br />confidence or uncertainty in assessments. <br />6. Use the vulnerability assessment to design <br />adaptation strategies, prioritize response options, <br />and identify areas of further research — <br />Vulnerability assessments pinpoint the factors <br />affecting the vulnerability of a conservation target <br />to climate change and help identify intervention <br />