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CFE agenda 121415
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CFE agenda 121415
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12/14/2015
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CFE minutes 121415
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5. What's the worst -case scenario? <br />There are many. <br />That is actually hard to say, which is one reason scientists are urging that emissions be <br />cut; they want to limit the possibility of any worst -case scenario coming to pass. Perhaps <br />the greatest fear is a collapse of food production, accompanied by escalating prices and <br />mass starvation. Even with runaway emissions growth, it is unclear how likely this would <br />be, as farmers are able to adjust their crops and farming techniques, to a degree, to adapt <br />to climatic changes. Another possibility would be a disintegration of the polar ice sheets, <br />leading to fast -rising seas that would force people to abandon many of the world's great <br />cities and would lead to the loss of trillions of dollars worth of property and other assets. <br />Scientists also worry about other wild -card scenarios like the predictable cycles of Asian <br />monsoons' becoming less reliable. Billions of people depend on monsoons to provide <br />water for crops, so any disruptions would be catastrophic. <br />6. Will a tech breakthrough help us? <br />Even Bill Gates says don't count on it, unless we commit the cash. <br />As more companies, governments and researchers devote themselves to the problem, the <br />chances of big technological advances are improving. But even many experts who are <br />optimistic about technological solutions warn that current efforts are not enough. For <br />instance, spending on basic energy research is only a quarter to a third of the level that <br />several in -depth reports have recommended. And public spending on agricultural <br />research has stagnated even though climate change poses growing risks to the food <br />supply. People like Bill Gates have argued that crossing our fingers and hoping for <br />technological miracles is not a strategy we have to spend the money that would make <br />these things more likely to happen. <br />7. How much will the seas rise? <br />The real question is not how high, but how fast. <br />The ocean is rising at a rate of about a foot per century. That causes severe effects on <br />coastlines, forcing governments and property owners to spend tens of billions of dollars <br />fighting erosion. But if that rate continued, it would probably be manageable, experts say. <br />The risk is that the rate will accelerate markedly. If emissions continue unchecked, then <br />the temperature at the earth's surface could soon resemble a past epoch called the <br />Pliocene, when a great deal of ice melted and the ocean rose something like 80 feet <br />compared to today. A recent study found that burning all the fossil fuels in the ground <br />would fully melt the polar ice sheets, raising the sea level by more than 160 feet over an <br />unknown period. <br />With all of that said, the crucial issue is probably not how much the oceans are going to <br />rise, but how fast. And on that point, scientists are pretty much flying blind. Their best <br />information comes from studying Earth's history, and it suggests that the rate can on <br />occasion hit a foot per decade, which can probably be thought of as the worst -case <br />scenario. A rate even half that would force rapid retreat from the coasts and, some experts <br />think, throw human society into crisis. Even if the rise is much slower, many of the <br />world's great cities will flood eventually. Studies suggest that big cuts in emissions could <br />slow the rise, buying crucial time for society to adapt to an altered coastline. <br />
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