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DIFFICULT MATH OF CLIMATE CHANGE The Obama admires- tration does not plan to seek approval for any - Paris accord. The presi- dent has said he believes he has the authority to impose carbon emission limits through existing legislation and the EPA. And Knox isn't worried that other countries will . renege on their promises. Global urgency about climate change is on the rise, he says. No wonder. Since 1900 and the full emergence of the industrial age, the burning of gas, oil and coal for energy has en- abled enormous prosperity in the First World. It has also caused the planet to warm by about 1 degree Celsius (1.8 degrees Fah- renheit). The geologic record over millions of years shows the Earth has never warmed so fast in j such a short time. Think of the atmosphere as a blanket. Before the 1900s, the blanket's thick- ness was ideal. It allowed in enough.of the sun's heat to warm the Earth, while enabling enough of that heat to reflect off the surface and.escape. That lightweight blanket kept temperatures steady and " nonthreatening to human activity. "Without a greenhouse effect," Knox said, "we would have the atmos- phere of the moon." But tons and tons of greenhouse gas emissions over the decades have increased the thickness of that atmospheric blanket. The Earth has warmed. And Mother Nature, who has been tossed off bal- ance, has responded with a vengeance. Climate scientists say weather today is more unpredictable, more errat- ic. The unprecedented power of hurricanes Katri- na and Sandy are possible U.S. examples. In the Philippines, three of the most ferocious typhoons ever have leveled the island state in the last three years. Alaska is losing its permafrost. Bangladesh, essentially a country spread across a marsh, may see 150 mil- lion people dislocated by sea -level rise. Lima, Peru, is a desert city of 9 million people where it never rains. It depends on Andean gla- cier melt for its water. Those glaciers have shrunk by a third. Climate scientists be- lieve that carbon emis- sions must be reduced drastically to keep the world from warming an- other 1 degree Celsius in the next 50 -75 years. If we keep burning fossil fuels at the current rate, temper- atures are expected to rise an additional 3 to 5 de- grees Celsius. Life on Earth could become un- sustainable by the 22nd century, scientists warn. And here's where Knox's optimism takes a hit: the emissions gap. When calculated, the voluntary global pledges are only half as much as needed to prevent an increase of 1 degree Celsi- us by 2100. "Cutting out the use of fossil fuels, Knox said. "There is no other way to fix this problem." WHAT ABOUT FORESTS? Others disagree. Representatives from the nation's leading envi- ronmental groups held a news conference Nov. 20 and issued an urgent plea. It's not just about reduc- ing emissions, they.say. It's seeing the forests for the trees. Trees and organic matter thrive on carbon dioxide. It's their oxygen, especially in the dense tropical forests around the belly of the Earth. In Brazil and the Congo, Indonesia and Peru, tropical forests soak in COz and store it in leaves, limbs, trunks and roots. As long as the tree is alive and standing, it holds that carbon as if locked in a vault. But when trees fall through deforestation, when they are burned or left to rot, the vault opens, and the carbon escapes. Deforestation globally contributes as much to carbon emissions as the entire, transportation sector. "The activities of the land sector collectively account for about 24 per- cent of global greenhouse gas emissions," said Jason Funk, a climate scientist with ,he Union of Con- cerned Scientists in Wash - ington, D.C. "But forests . provide sequestration potential equal to about 10 to 14 percent of current gross emissions." Funk and his colleagues at the Environmental Defense Fund, the World Wildlife Fund, the Nature Conservancy and Conser- vation International be- lieve Paris negotiators are overlooking a crucial as- pect for offsetting the effects of climate changer yes, reduce emissions, but also agree to an aggressive strategy to also reduce deforestation and regrow - forests where they have been slashed and burned for ranching, farming and extraction. "Forests and other eco -- systems are the only posi- tive way we have of re- moving carbon from the atmosphere at scale," said Steve Panfil, a policy ad- viser with Conservation International in Washing- ton, D.C. "Any agreement in Paris has to take that into account. If we stop deforestation today, the remaining forests could reduce emissions (by pull- ing gases from the atmos- phere) by 30 percent." But there are other practical reasons to stop destr3ying nature, Panfil adds. Mangroves blunt the fury of land -bound storms. Rain and cloud forests play a crucial tole in the water cycle, which affects weather patterns around the world. Millions of people depend, on forests for food security. "The emissions gap is real, and it's fair to say the land sector has not been Q—, C'n..V , �jt j ZZ given the importance it deserves in closing the gap," Funk said.