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Approved 11/15/17 53 costs must be covered by expected revenues, so there are a more limited number of projects than in the CTP. The 54 hatched area on the map shows where the MTP was used to choose STPP projects. STPP or Strategic 55 Transportation Prioritization Process is a gateway into NCDOT methodology for funding projects in the transportation 56 approval program. Funding plans are stretched out over 10 years, in these cases. The MTP lists highway transit and 57 bicycle and pedestrian projects to address deficiencies through the year 2045. The plan is based on future land use, 58 population, employment and the travel demand model (to be discussed later in the presentation), and a financial 59 plan. Projects must be in the MTP to get federal funding to then move into the TIP. Planners used to use the MTP to 60 reserve right -of -way for future roadways. Mr. Henry reviewed the process of creating the MTP, breaking down 61 various analyses, projections, and the creating of key alternatives for addressing congestion. The MPO will release 62 its draft, referred to as its "preferred option," in October. This draft will go back out for public input, at which time the 63 OUTBoard can also make additional comments. The plan and report will likely be approved by December 2017 or 64 January 2018. Another part of the process is running the alternatives analysis in consideration of land use and 65 transportation networks. The alternatives are put through the Triangle Regional Model to see how well the 66 alternatives meet future demand. The alternatives are not presented singularly; projects will be taken out from the 67 various alternatives for the final plan. Mr. Henry went over the process of creating alternatives in more depth. He said 68 that they take 2 land use scenarios; one is the community plan, based on local comprehensive land use plans, and 69 the other is the "aim high" plan where higher density scenarios are examined in the urbanized areas, like around 70 proposed light rail stations. These plans are combined with a transportation network with lots of highway projects, 71 along with one with fewer highway projects and more transit, and then a network that balances highway and transit. 72 These combinations inform the alternatives. For land use, guide totals for population and employment are put into the 73 land use model and then the model distributes the population - employment around the counties to see where they 74 think it will go. Looking at Orange County, the population is currently about 139,000 people. In 2045 it is estimated to 75 be 194,000, a 40 percent increase. Employment -wise, there are currently about 64,000 jobs in Orange County. In 76 2045, there will be 107,000 jobs, a 68 percent increase. Employment is increasing faster than population in Orange 77 County, a pattern in all the other counties in the MPO as well. 78 79 Erle Smith asked how Mr. Henry figured a 28% disparity between population growth and employment growth? This 80 suggests a pretty high unemployment rate. 81 82 Andy Henry answered that this figure is based on the growth rate. The County will continue to attract workers from 83 collar counties or surrounding counties. 84 85 Erle Smith said that Orange County was like a salary seat. 86 87 Andy Henry commented that it is evident in the mornings on NC -54 and 15 -501 with traffic being very high that a lot 88 of people are coming in to work at UNC and other places. 89 90 David Laudicina asked if the employment forecast takes into consideration what the Research Triangle is trying to do, 91 which is to add 110,000 new jobs, generating a huge amount of service jobs. 92 93 Andy Henry answered that the population total is from the NC demographer and is broken -out by county (20 year 94 projection). The MPO stretches that total out to 30 years to get its figures. The employment figures were from Woods 95 and Poole, a private company dealing with economic and demographic projections out to 2050. 96 97 David Laudicina said that those population projections could be conservative. 98 99 Andy Henry responded that upon revisiting some of the projection forecasts, sometimes the projections seem either 100 lower or higher, depending on what people expect. 101 102 Alex Castro asked why parts of Chatham County are included even though Chatham County is outside of the MPO. 103 2