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4 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />-graphs <br /> <br />Property Tax Rate <br />At a constant property tax rate, property tax revenue will reflect increases as assessed value <br />increases <br />• Revenues will vary if tax rate is increased to cover: <br /> Loss of impact fees <br /> Increased debt service <br /> Ongoing operating cost increases (assuming continued FTE and health cost increases) <br /> <br />Sales Tax <br />Significant impact from last recession <br />• Assumes minor recessions in FY 2019‐20 and FY 2026‐27 <br />• Includes added revenue and incentive payments related to Wegman’s (assumes $400K/year <br />from FY 2020‐21 through FY 2024‐25) <br />• Projection consistent with short‐term trend <br /> <br />Charges for Service <br />Big drop in planning fees related to construction activity, due to last recession <br />• Projection builds on FY 2017‐ 18 budget estimates, which is in keeping with the trend of the <br />prior 5 years <br /> <br />Intergovernmental <br />Includes $4M drop in Social Service fees (child day care funding switch to state) with <br />commensurate drop in expenses for child care <br />• $1.3M included for Lottery (was zero in original FY 2017‐18 budget) <br /> <br />Other Revenues <br />Includes Privilege Tax, Franchise Fee, Interest and Miscellaneous Revenue (excludes <br />appropriated fund balance) <br />• The large decrease in FY 2017‐18 is due to the reclassification of the State Hold Harmless <br />Sales Tax revenues from Miscellaneous Revenues to the Sales Tax Revenues category <br /> <br />Transfers In <br />Volatile source <br />• Category mostly consisted of development impact fees <br /> Increase reflects $2 million in FY 2017‐18 per reimbursement resolution for capital projects <br /> The flat line from FY 2020‐21 reflects the elimination of Impact Fees. <br /> <br />Expenditures <br />Staffing Growth Exceeds Population Growth Over Last 7 Years, Even Over Long‐Term- graph <br /> <br />Inflation <br />Consumer Price Index is used as general measure of inflationary pressures on wages and other <br />costs <br />• CPI relatively stable over past 20 years <br /> 20‐year average is 2.20% <br /> 10‐year average is 1.85% <br />• Federal reserve’s target goal is 2% <br />• Forecast assumes 2% annual growth rate in inflation