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2 <br />3 <br />4 <br />5 <br />6 <br />7 <br />8 <br />9 <br />10 <br />11 <br />12 <br />13 <br />14 <br />15 <br />16 <br />17 <br />18 <br />19 <br />20 <br />21 <br />22 <br />23 <br />24 <br />25 <br />26 <br />27 <br />28 <br />29 <br />30 <br />31 <br />32 <br />33 <br />34 <br />35 <br />36 <br />37 <br />38 <br />39 <br />40 <br />41 <br />42 <br />43 <br />44 <br />45 <br />46 <br />47 <br />48 <br />49 <br />50 <br />e <br />Transfers to OPEB Trust account for high amounts ($3M in FY 2012 -13, $3M in FY 2013 -14, <br />and $1.5M in FY 2014 -15) <br />• Assumes Efland Sewer ($145K) ends FY 2019 -20 <br />• Assumes Affordable Housing ($812K) continues at 2% growth <br />• Assumes Grant projects ($56K) continue at 2% growth <br />• Assumes Sportsplex ($168K) continues at 0% growth <br />Fund Balance <br />Baseline Forecast <br />Assumes property tax rate remains at current $0.8377 (see below for key property tax <br />assumptions) <br />• Before any corrective actions <br />• Results in structural shortfall leading to net deficit by FY 2022 -23 <br />• 16% reserve is County policy, while 8% is Local Government Commission's minimum reserve <br />requirement <br />Sample Option A <br />Property Tax levy raised by $0.0576 in FY 2018 -19 (8.7% increase) and maintained at that <br />same rate thereafter regardless of assessed valuation growth <br />D8% increases in FY2021 -22 and FY2025 -26 due to reappraisal years <br />• Requires no reduction in expenditures <br />• Meets 16% reserve goal in out -years mostly with unassigned balance alone <br />Sample Option B <br />Property tax levy increase of $0.0576 phased -in over a 3 -year period, with fixed rate thereafter <br />• Meets 16% reserve goal in near -term and out -years with combined state required reserve and <br />unassigned balance <br />• Potential expenditure reductions required in mid- 2020's to comply with County's 16% reserve <br />policy <br />Sample Option C <br />Property tax levy increase of $0.0576 phased -in over a 3 -year period, with 2% tax levy growth <br />thereafter (rate floats up or down based on assessed value changes, to net 2% revenue growth) <br />• No change in expenditure levels <br />• Property tax revenue is inadequate to prevent future deficits <br />Sample Option D <br />Option D includes a series of expenditure reductions (eventual 6% total cut) to close the <br />remaining revenue gap from Option C <br />L 1$10M reduction in FY 2021 -22 <br />D$2M reduction in FY 2023 -24 <br />I_j$3M reduction in FY 2025 -26 <br />• Total reductions of $15M are ongoing; assumes 2% annual growth in value of avoided costs <br />Observations <br />Financial Sustainability and Best Practices <br />Structurally balanced budget <br />