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1 <br />2 <br />3 <br />4 <br />5 <br />6 <br />7 <br />8 <br />9 <br />10 <br />11 <br />12 <br />13 <br />14 <br />15 <br />16 <br />17 <br />18 <br />19 <br />20 <br />21 <br />22 <br />23 <br />24 <br />25 <br />26 <br />27 <br />28 <br />29 <br />30 <br />31 <br />32 <br />33 <br />34 <br />35 <br />36 <br />37 <br />38 <br />39 <br />40 <br />41 <br />42 <br />43 <br />44 <br />45 <br />46 <br />47 <br />48 <br />49 <br />50 <br />- graphs <br />Property Tax Rate <br />At a constant property tax rate, property tax revenue will reflect increases as assessed value <br />increases <br />• Revenues will vary if tax rate is increased to cover: <br />'clLoss of impact fees <br />_j Increased debt service <br />JOngoing operating cost increases (assuming continued FTE and health cost increases) <br />Sales Tax <br />Significant impact from last recession <br />• Assumes minor recessions in FY 2019 -20 and FY 2026 -27 <br />• Includes added revenue and incentive payments related to Wegman's (assumes $400K/year <br />from FY 2020 -21 through FY 2024 -25) <br />• Projection consistent with short -term trend <br />Charges for Service <br />Big drop in planning fees related to construction activity, due to last recession <br />• Projection builds on FY 2017- 18 budget estimates, which is in keeping with the trend of the <br />prior 5 years <br />Intergovernmental <br />Includes $4M drop in Social Service fees (child day care funding switch to state) with <br />commensurate drop in expenses for child care <br />• $1.3M included for Lottery (was zero in original FY 2017 -18 budget) <br />Other Revenues <br />Includes Privilege Tax, Franchise Fee, Interest and Miscellaneous Revenue (excludes <br />appropriated fund balance) <br />• The large decrease in FY 2017 -18 is due to the reclassification of the State Hold Harmless <br />Sales Tax revenues from Miscellaneous Revenues to the Sales Tax Revenues category <br />Transfers In <br />Volatile source <br />• Category mostly consisted of development impact fees <br />j =llncrease reflects $2 million in FY 2017 -18 per reimbursement resolution for capital projects <br />ff —IThe flat line from FY 2020 -21 reflects the elimination of Impact Fees. <br />Expenditures <br />Staffing Growth Exceeds Population Growth Over Last 7 Years, Even Over Long -Term- graph <br />Inflation <br />Consumer Price Index is used as general measure of inflationary pressures on wages and other <br />costs <br />• CPI relatively stable over past 20 years <br />=20 -year average is 2.20% <br />10 -year average is 1.85% <br />• Federal reserve's target goal is 2% <br />• Forecast assumes 2% annual growth rate in inflation <br />