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1 <br /> <br /> <br /> <br />THE NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, 1st QUARTER 2018 <br />Prepared by Dr. Michael L. Walden, William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor, <br />Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics, North Carolina State University <br /> Contact Methods: phone: 919-219-8923; e-mail: michael_walden@ncsu.edu <br /> <br />TEN NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC HEADLINES FOR 2017 AND 2018 <br />1. North Carolina’s economic growth rate has accelerated since 2013 and has beaten the <br />broadest national growth rate for three straight years, although falling short of the <br />Southeast region growth rate in 2017. <br /> <br />2. The Information, Professional and Business Services, and Leisure and Food Services sectors <br />have been the fastest growing since 2010. <br /> <br />3. Non-durable Manufacturing – including tobacco products, textiles, and apparel – continues <br />to contract and is a major factor in the on-going urban/rural divide in the state. <br /> <br />4. Residential construction expanded in 2017 and has grown on trend since 2011; however, <br />economic activity levels in the sector are well below pre-recessionary levels. <br /> <br />5. North Carolina’s payroll job growth rates have exceeded national payroll job growth rates <br />in seven of the past eight years; however job growth decelerated in 2017. <br /> <br />6. Each of the major measures of unemployment in North Carolina have been halved since <br />2010. <br /> <br />7. The “hollowing-out” of North Carolina’s labor market continued in 2017, although at a <br />slightly less pronounced rate than in the previous seven years. <br /> <br />8. The five largest metropolitan regions in the state accounted for 83% of the growth <br />in payroll jobs in 2017. <br /> <br />9. The state will experience another year of economic growth in 2018, with real GDP <br />expanding by 2.8%, the headline jobless rate falling to 3.6%, and over 70,000 <br />payroll jobs being created. <br /> <br />10. The Asheville, Durham, and Raleigh metropolitan regions will have the lowest <br />unemployment rates at the end of 2018, at or near 3%. <br /> <br />7