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Recessions have occurred on <br />average every 6.8 years since <br />1927 <br />• Budget impacts often lag official <br />recessions <br />• Forecast assumes minor <br />recessions in FY 2019 -20 (starting <br />mid -2019) and FY 2026 -27 <br />Key is timing and magnitude; <br />model allows range of <br />assumptions to be tested <br />