7-a - Report on the Orange County Tax Equity Study

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CCM Economics, LLC Orange County Tax Equity Page 6 In 1987, which was the year of the Wicker Study, the county population stood at 86,236 whereas today it has grown to 140,144. This is a growth of 62.5% over the interim time period. If one was to examine the compound average annual growth rate (CAGR) over this time period, it would equal 1.74%.4 However, not all parts of Orange County have grown at the same rate. Table 1 and Figure 4 compare how population has changed for the different cities in Orange County as well as the MSA, the state of North Carolina, and the USA. Since Mebane and Chapel Hill have a nontrivial amount of population outside of the county, the municipal-wide population, as well as the municipal population contained only within Orange County is included as well. Table 1. Population Changes, 1987-2015 Location 1987 2015 Percent Change CAGR Carrboro 11,375 20,558 180.7 2.1 Chapel Hill Town 36,711 59,569 162.3 1.7 Chapel Hill--OC Only 37,205 56,459 151.8 1.5 Hillsborough 3,343 6,464 193.4 2.4 Mebane City 4,048 12,623 311.8 4.1 Mebane--OC only 517 1,995 385.9 4.9 Unincorporated 33,796 54,606 161.6 1.7 Orange County 86,236 140,144 162.5 1.7 Durham-Chapel Hill MSA 325,762 551,237 169.2 1.9 North Carolina (mil) 6.404 10.04 156.8 1.6 USA (mil) 242.3 321.4 132.6 1.0 4 The compound annual growth rate is determined by the following formula: {[(Ending value / Beginning value)]^(1/# of years)] -1}. It represents the rate of increase or decrease necessary to get one from the initial value to the ending value. For example, suppose that population in county X goes fro m 100 to 175 over a 10 year period. Population in county X has grown by 75% over this 10 year period, but has experienced an average growth rate of 5.75% since there is the opportunity for compounding over the time period. If one used a growth rate of 7.5% per year for 10 years, population in county X would grow from 100 to 206 . 43