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1 <br />t <br />Solving for 50% support of the referendum, the regression yields S67.37 million. <br />Point estimates of the confidence interval computed from the standard error of the <br />regression coefficient would yield excessively large intervals because the regression <br />line was found from five aggregated data points. Therefore, it would be better to <br />look at the confidence intervals around the individual questions, which are based on <br />401 cases. <br />At the $65 million dollar level, 52.9 % of respondents support the referendum, with a <br />confidence interval of +/- 4.9 %. If the amount of the bond is decreased to $55 <br />million, support rises to 59.4% with a confidence interval of +/- 4.8%. <br />Sixty -two percent say the issue of school overcrowding is "extremely important" or <br />"very important" to their decision to support or not support the school bond <br />referendum. Ten percent say that this issue was "not very important ". There were <br />no outstanding differences between demographic groups in the responses to this <br />question. <br />Nearly two - thirds, 59.9 %, report there are no other issues that might cause them to <br />vote against the referendum. Ten percent mention the cost in taxes as a factor that <br />influences them negatively. Disproportionate distribution of funds is mentioned by <br />6.0 %. Again, there are no apparent differences between demographic groups. <br />IV. Distribution of Bond Proceeds <br />Forty percent of the respondents feel that the division of bond proceeds should be <br />based on "projected enrollment ". Nearly one - fourth, 23.2 %, say that it should be <br />evenly divided and 15.5 % think that it should be "proportional to request". Forty - <br />two percent of residents of the Orange County School district and 61.1 % of blacks <br />say it should be evenly divided. Fifteen percent of the Chapel Hill/Carrboro district <br />feel it should be evenly divided. <br />V. Timing of Referendum <br />Over half, 53.9 %, say that the best time to conduct the 'school bond referendum <br />would be November 1992, "which would coincide with the national election." <br />Nineteen percent preferred May, along with the Primary and 15.0 % opt for a special <br />election between the two. (This does not reflect any correlation between support for <br />the bond and the timing of the referendum.) <br />5 <br />