Agenda - 02-03-1992 - Laserfiche WebLink

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EXECUTIVE SLgvD4ARY Support for a school bond referendum in Orange County is quite high. There is, however, a strong negative correlation between support for the referendum and the amount of the bond. Support for the lowest level, $45 million dollars, is 69.3 %, while only 37.2 % at an $85 million level. At each level, support is highest among women, residents of the Chapel Hill✓Carrboro School District and those who have not had children in either of the school systems. (Those who have not had children may see more potential personal gain). Awareness of the bond issues is rather low. While 51.1 % claim prior knowledge of the proposed referendum, only 19.2% consider themselves "well informed" about enrollment growth in the systems and only 12.5 % consider themselves "well informed" about the proposed construction projects. Parents of children currently enrolled in one of the systems are more likely to consider themselves "well informed." Forty percent feel that the bond proceeds should be split between the two systems according to projected enrollment. Twenty -three percent prefer that it be evenly divided between the two districts. Forty percent of the Orange County district residents prefer an even distribution. Nearly two- thirds, 61.9 %, say the issue of school overcrowding is "extremely important" or "very important" to their decision to support or not support the school bond referendum, with no outstanding differences between demographic groups. --- Based upon the analysis of the data collected for this study, Johnston, Zabor feels comfortable suggesting that a bond referendum for $60 million could be successfully offered in May of 1992. There are, however, a few caveats to this suggestion: This research is a snapshot of opinion in mid- January 1992. As with any attempt to predict results, the environment can change between survey and actual public. offering. The further away from January the actual referendum occurs, the less assurance one can have in this particular research. " The success of a bond referendum to the schools my be impacted considerably by a public relations campaign. i The local and national economies will likely change in the coming months. The impact on voter preference could be important. The cohesiveness of opinion espoused by political leaders for Orange County, and the two school boards could dramatically impact the results.