Agenda - 12-17-1991 - Laserfiche WebLink

Browse Search

ORANGE COUNTY BOARD OF COMMISSIONERS - ACTION AGENDA ITEM ABSTRACT Meeting Date: December 17, 1991 SUBJECT: Bond Referendum Survey DEPARTMENT County Manager ATTACHMENT(S) 1 Action Agenda Item No PUBLIC HEARING YES NO X INFORMATION CONTACT County Manager, ext 2300 TELEPHONE NUMBER Hillsborough 732 -8181 Chapel Hill 968 -4501 Mebane 227 -2031 Durham 688 -7331 PURPOSE; To receive a report concerning prospects for a random telephone survey of Orange County voters in January 1992 that would assist the Board in making decisions about the timing, size, and elements of a possible school bond referendum. BACKGROUND: The Board of Commissioners has discussed the possibility of securing the services of a consultant to conduct a survey of voter attitudes about a potential school bond referendum. If such a referendum were to be held in conjunction with the May 5, 1992 primary elections, the survey would have to be completed in mid - January 1992. The Board of Commissioners must indicate by its first February meeting its intent to file a bond order with the Local Government Commission. Johnston, Zabor, and Associates is an RTP firm that has conducted a number of surveys for the Chapel Hill- Carrboro City Schools and for Durham County. They recommended to the Durham County Commissioners a 1990 bond order of $125 -$135 million. The Durham Board decided on a school bond referendum of $131 million. In March 1991, Durham voters approved that bond level at 67%, against the firm's prediction of 680 approval. Johnston, Zabor has indicated that it could conduct a survey and prepare an analysis of the results with a turnaround time of about three weeks. The outcome of this survey would be a report to the Board that "on this date you could pass a school bond referendum for $x million ". There are a number of factors that would influence the cost of such a survey. Among others, these include: sample size; number, detail, and nature (open ended vs. close ended) of questions; degree of crosstabulation desired (breakdown of poll results by race, income level, sex, school district, etc); and whether voter lists can be provided. A survey would likely run between $5,000- $10,000, depending on Orange County's needs for these types of information. Durham County used a sample size of 400 voters, which would provide for a 4.9% margin of error. The more expensive option of 800 voters would provide information with a 2.8% margin of error.