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<br />Page 4
<br />fieb -u:.ry 27, 1991
<br />Decreases in population estimates could mean lost revenue for some counties
<br />121,951 people. Overall, 77 counties increased their
<br />number of residents by 1 percent or more. 7 counties
<br />exhibited scant or no change, while 16 counties lost
<br />more than 1 percent of their population over the 10-
<br />year period.
<br />Although the population shifts from 1980 to 1990
<br />are of interest to our local governments, counties
<br />should be particularly attentive to the differences in the
<br />1990 Census figures and the state's official 1989
<br />population estimates.
<br />The N.C. Office of Management and Budget an-
<br />nually recalculates each county's population based on
<br />the most recent Census figures and birth, death, in-
<br />migration, and put - migration patterns.
<br />These estimates are then used as the basis for dis-
<br />tributing those state administered and shared revenues
<br />allocated on a per capita basis.
<br />Now that_thc Census has released the 1990 fieur -s
<br />estimates between 1989 and 1990, a loss of those
<br />revenues allocated on a per capita basis will probably
<br />occur as well.
<br />For example, Anson County's official state 1989
<br />population estimate was 26,221. The amended Census
<br />figure is 23,474. That is a 10.5 percent decrease in the
<br />population estimate.
<br />As a result, local governments in Anson County
<br />might anticipate a decrease in those revenue sources
<br />which arc allocated on s per capita basis.
<br />This will especially be we for those revenue sour-
<br />ces whose anticipated growth rates are below the
<br />county's T°alation estimate loss.
<br />The 1_-. wurces of revenue which are allocated
<br />on a pc::... nasis are the Article 40 and Article 42
<br />local option sales taxes (5437.7 million distributed in
<br />1989 -90). rr" Article 39 1 percent local option sales
<br />^girt of sale basis.)
<br />From Page 1
<br />state sales tax proceeds.)
<br />The 1990 population counts will impact quarterly
<br />sales tax distributions beginning in November, 1991.
<br />Other major sources of revenue distributed per
<br />capita are the beer and wine excise tax (520.1 million
<br />in 1989 -90) and the 20 percent retailers' /wholesalers'
<br />reimbursement (517.1 million in 1989 -94
<br />Smaller revenue pools distributed per capita in•
<br />elude the scrap tire disposal fee, any appropriated
<br />increase in the Health Aid to Counties grant, a portion
<br />of the Public Libraries Fund grant, and the base mental
<br />health grants (per 1,000 in area).
<br />In addition, one -half of the Social Services Block
<br />Grant is allocated on a per capita basis, using the
<br />Office of Management and Budget's official state
<br />population estimates.
<br />1980 -
<br />1990 CENSUS
<br />C011, :PARISON
<br />CHART
<br />1990
<br />1980
<br />No.
<br />Percent
<br />1990
<br />1990
<br />No.
<br />Percent
<br />COUNTY
<br />CENSL'S PQP ST,6TE POP.
<br />HANCF.
<br />CHANS,E
<br />C01,1NTT CENSUS
<br />11P
<br />J1 0P
<br />CHANGE
<br />CHANGE
<br />ALAMANCE
<br />108,213
<br />• 99,319
<br />8,894
<br />9.0%
<br />LEE
<br />41,374
<br />36,718
<br />4,656
<br />12.7010
<br />ALEXANDER
<br />27,544
<br />24,999
<br />2,545.
<br />10.2%
<br />LENOIR
<br />57,274
<br />59,e19
<br />(2.545)
<br />-4.3%
<br />ALLEGHANY
<br />9,590
<br />9,587
<br />3
<br />0.0%
<br />LINCOLN
<br />50,319
<br />42,372
<br />7,947
<br />18.8%
<br />ANSON
<br />23,474
<br />25,649
<br />(2,175)
<br />-8.5%
<br />MACON
<br />23,499
<br />20,178
<br />3,321
<br />16.5%
<br />ASHE
<br />22,209
<br />22,325
<br />(116)
<br />.5%
<br />MADISON
<br />16,953
<br />16,827
<br />126
<br />0.8%
<br />AVERY
<br />14,867
<br />14,409
<br />458
<br />3.2%
<br />MAR %'IN
<br />25.0'-'3
<br />25,948
<br />(870)
<br />-3.4%
<br />BEAUFORT
<br />42,283
<br />40,355
<br />1,928
<br />4.82
<br />MCDOWELL
<br />35,681
<br />35,135
<br />546
<br />1.6%
<br />BERTIE
<br />20,388
<br />21,024
<br />(636)
<br />-3.0
<br />MECKLENBURG
<br />511,433
<br />404,270 107,163
<br />26.5%
<br />BLADEN
<br />28,663
<br />30,491
<br />(1.828)
<br />-6.0%
<br />MITCHELL
<br />14.4d33
<br />14,4;.8
<br />5
<br />0 -054
<br />BRUNSWICK
<br />50,985
<br />35,777
<br />15,208
<br />-42.5%
<br />MONTGOMERY
<br />23,346
<br />22,469
<br />877
<br />3.9%
<br />BUNCOMBE
<br />174,821
<br />-160.934
<br />13.887
<br />8.6%
<br />hfOORE
<br />59,01.3
<br />50,505
<br />8,509
<br />6.9%
<br />BURKE
<br />75,744
<br />72,50=
<br />3,240
<br />4.5%
<br />NASH
<br />76,677
<br />67,153
<br />9,52
<br />14.2%
<br />CABARRUS
<br />98,935
<br />85,895
<br />13,040
<br />15.2%
<br />NEW HAN•OVER
<br />120.284
<br />103,471
<br />16.813
<br />16.3%
<br />CALDWELL
<br />70.709
<br />67,746
<br />2,963
<br />4.4%
<br />NORTHAMPTON
<br />20.798
<br />22,195
<br />(1,357)
<br />-6.3%
<br />CAMDEN
<br />5,904
<br />5.829
<br />75
<br />1.3%
<br />ON-s' OW
<br />149,838
<br />. 112,784
<br />37.054
<br />319%
<br />CARTERET
<br />52,556
<br />41,092
<br />11,464
<br />-27.9%
<br />ORANGE
<br />93.851
<br />77,055
<br />16,796
<br />21.8%
<br />CASWELL
<br />20,693
<br />20.705
<br />(1:)
<br />-03%
<br />PAh".LICO
<br />11,372
<br />10,39E
<br />974
<br />9.417P
<br />CATAWBA
<br />118,412
<br />- 105,208
<br />13,204
<br />12.6%
<br />PASQUOTANK
<br />31,298
<br />28,462
<br />2,836
<br />10.0111C
<br />CHATHAM
<br />38.759
<br />33,415
<br />5,344
<br />16.1•%
<br />PENDER
<br />28,855
<br />22,262
<br />6,593
<br />29.65c
<br />CHEROKEE
<br />20,170
<br />18,933
<br />1237
<br />6.5%
<br />PERQUIMANS
<br />10,447
<br />9,486
<br />961
<br />10.1%
<br />CHOWAN
<br />13,506
<br />12,558
<br />948
<br />7.6:c
<br />PERSON
<br />30,180
<br />29,16:
<br />1.016
<br />3.5%
<br />CLAY
<br />7,155
<br />6,619
<br />536
<br />8.1%
<br />PITT
<br />107.924
<br />90,146
<br />17,778
<br />19.7%
<br />CLEVELAND
<br />84,714
<br />83,435
<br />1,279
<br />1.5%.
<br />POLK
<br />14,416
<br />12,984
<br />1,42
<br />11.0%
<br />COLUMBUS
<br />49,587.
<br />51,037
<br />(1,450)
<br />-18%
<br />RANDOLPH
<br />106.546
<br />91,300
<br />15.246
<br />16,7%
<br />CRAVEN
<br />81.613
<br />71,043
<br />10,570
<br />14.9%
<br />RICHMOND
<br />44,518
<br />45,161
<br />(643)
<br />-1.4%
<br />CUMBERLAND
<br />274.566
<br />247,160
<br />27,406
<br />11.1%
<br />ROBESON
<br />105,179
<br />101,610
<br />3.5 "0
<br />3.5%
<br />CURRITUCK
<br />13,736
<br />11,089
<br />2,G97
<br />-23.9%
<br />ROCKINGHAM
<br />86,064
<br />83,426
<br />2,C.�R
<br />3.2%
<br />DARE
<br />22,746
<br />13,377
<br />9.36c
<br />70.0%
<br />ROWAN
<br />110.605
<br />-99.186
<br />11 .� 9
<br />11.5%
<br />DAVIDSON
<br />126,677
<br />113,162
<br />13,515
<br />11.9%
<br />RUTHERFORD
<br />56,918
<br />53,787
<br />5.8%
<br />DAVIE
<br />27,859
<br />24,599
<br />3,260
<br />133`m
<br />SAMPSON
<br />47.297
<br />49,687
<br />(2,340)
<br />-4.85c
<br />DUPLIN
<br />39,995
<br />40,952
<br />(957;
<br />-13%
<br />SCOTLAND
<br />3 =.754
<br />32.2-73
<br />1 le 51
<br />4.6% !
<br />DURHAM
<br />181,835
<br />152,236
<br />29,599
<br />19.4%
<br />STAINT_Y
<br />51,765
<br />48,517
<br />3,248
<br />6.7%
<br />EDGECOMBE
<br />56,558
<br />55,988
<br />570
<br />1.0%
<br />STOKES
<br />37.223
<br />33.086
<br />4,137
<br />12.5%
<br />FORSYTH
<br />265,878
<br />• 243,704
<br />22,174
<br />9.1%
<br />SURR)•
<br />61,704
<br />59.449
<br />2,255
<br />3.8%
<br />FRANKLIN
<br />36,414
<br />30.055
<br />6,359
<br />21.2%
<br />SWAIN
<br />11,268
<br />10,28?
<br />985
<br />9.6%
<br />GAS-ION
<br />175,093
<br />• 162,568
<br />12,525
<br />7.7%
<br />TRANSYLVANIA
<br />25.520
<br />23,41
<br />2,103
<br />9.0%
<br />GATES
<br />9.305
<br />8,875
<br />430
<br />4.9%
<br />TYRRELL
<br />3,856
<br />3.975
<br />(119)
<br />-3.0%
<br />GRAHAM
<br />7,196
<br />7,217
<br />(21)
<br />-0.3%
<br />UNION
<br />84,211
<br />70,456
<br />13,775
<br />19.6%
<br />Gll9M7'ILLE
<br />38,3:5
<br />34,043
<br />4,302
<br />12.6%
<br />VANCE
<br />38,892
<br />36.748
<br />2,144
<br />5.8%
<br />GREENE
<br />15,384
<br />16,117
<br />(733)
<br />-4.6%
<br />FAKE
<br />423.380
<br />301,429
<br />121,951
<br />' 40.5%
<br />GUILFORD
<br />347,420
<br />• 317,154
<br />30.266
<br />9.5%
<br />WARREN
<br />17,265
<br />16,232
<br />1,033
<br />6.4%
<br />HALIFAX
<br />55.516
<br />55,076
<br />440
<br />0.8%
<br />WASHINGTON
<br />13,997
<br />14.801
<br />(804)
<br />-5.4%
<br />HARNETT
<br />67.822
<br />59,570
<br />8,252
<br />13.9%
<br />WATAUGA
<br />36.952
<br />31,666
<br />5,286
<br />16.7%
<br />HAYWOOD
<br />46,942
<br />46,495
<br />447
<br />1.0%
<br />WAYNE
<br />104,666
<br />97,054
<br />7.612
<br />7.8%
<br />HENDERSON
<br />69,285
<br />58,580
<br />10,705
<br />18.3%
<br />WILKES
<br />59,393
<br />58,657
<br />736
<br />1.3%
<br />HERTFORD
<br />22,523
<br />23,368
<br />(845)
<br />-3.6%
<br />WILSON
<br />66.061
<br />63,132
<br />2,929
<br />4.6%
<br />HOKE
<br />22.856
<br />20,383
<br />2,473
<br />12.1%
<br />YADKIN
<br />30.488
<br />28,439
<br />2.049
<br />7.2%
<br />HYDE
<br />5,411
<br />5,873
<br />(462)
<br />-7.9%
<br />YANCEY
<br />15,419
<br />14,934
<br />485
<br />3.3%
<br />IREDELL
<br />92,931
<br />82,538
<br />10,393
<br />12.6%
<br />JACKSON
<br />26,846
<br />25,811
<br />1,035
<br />4.0%
<br />TOTAL
<br />6,628,637
<br />5,880,096
<br />748,541
<br />12.7%
<br />JOHNSTON
<br />81.306
<br />70.599
<br />10,707
<br />15.2%
<br />JONES
<br />9,414
<br />9.705
<br />(291)
<br />-3.0%
<br />Decreases in population estimates could mean lost revenue for some counties
<br />121,951 people. Overall, 77 counties increased their
<br />number of residents by 1 percent or more. 7 counties
<br />exhibited scant or no change, while 16 counties lost
<br />more than 1 percent of their population over the 10-
<br />year period.
<br />Although the population shifts from 1980 to 1990
<br />are of interest to our local governments, counties
<br />should be particularly attentive to the differences in the
<br />1990 Census figures and the state's official 1989
<br />population estimates.
<br />The N.C. Office of Management and Budget an-
<br />nually recalculates each county's population based on
<br />the most recent Census figures and birth, death, in-
<br />migration, and put - migration patterns.
<br />These estimates are then used as the basis for dis-
<br />tributing those state administered and shared revenues
<br />allocated on a per capita basis.
<br />Now that_thc Census has released the 1990 fieur -s
<br />estimates between 1989 and 1990, a loss of those
<br />revenues allocated on a per capita basis will probably
<br />occur as well.
<br />For example, Anson County's official state 1989
<br />population estimate was 26,221. The amended Census
<br />figure is 23,474. That is a 10.5 percent decrease in the
<br />population estimate.
<br />As a result, local governments in Anson County
<br />might anticipate a decrease in those revenue sources
<br />which arc allocated on s per capita basis.
<br />This will especially be we for those revenue sour-
<br />ces whose anticipated growth rates are below the
<br />county's T°alation estimate loss.
<br />The 1_-. wurces of revenue which are allocated
<br />on a pc::... nasis are the Article 40 and Article 42
<br />local option sales taxes (5437.7 million distributed in
<br />1989 -90). rr" Article 39 1 percent local option sales
<br />^girt of sale basis.)
<br />From Page 1
<br />state sales tax proceeds.)
<br />The 1990 population counts will impact quarterly
<br />sales tax distributions beginning in November, 1991.
<br />Other major sources of revenue distributed per
<br />capita are the beer and wine excise tax (520.1 million
<br />in 1989 -90) and the 20 percent retailers' /wholesalers'
<br />reimbursement (517.1 million in 1989 -94
<br />Smaller revenue pools distributed per capita in•
<br />elude the scrap tire disposal fee, any appropriated
<br />increase in the Health Aid to Counties grant, a portion
<br />of the Public Libraries Fund grant, and the base mental
<br />health grants (per 1,000 in area).
<br />In addition, one -half of the Social Services Block
<br />Grant is allocated on a per capita basis, using the
<br />Office of Management and Budget's official state
<br />population estimates.
<br />
|