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S <br />state's numbers in effect amount to a nose -count which is <br />augmented by a cohort - survival projection methodology. Such a <br />methodology is necessary to accurately project enrollments. <br />As a general rule, methods of projection which deal with <br />migration rates and other similar factors are not effective <br />at a small scale (below county level). <br />It would therefore be very difficult to improve on the <br />state's methodology, and in fact, the projections seem very <br />much in tune with other trends mentioned below. <br />The only real "failure" of the state's attempts over the past <br />few years has been in underprojecting kindergarten population <br />for the Chapel Hill - Carrboro Schools. This problem has <br />apparently been corrected by the state through modification <br />of their modal split of live births. <br />Therefore, the state's 10 -year projections are recommended to <br />the committee as the best basis for considering needs on the <br />basis of enrollment. <br />2. school enrollment trends and county population trends <br />do not necessarily coincide with each other. <br />Most attempts to "track" school enrollment with County <br />populations fail. There are a number of reasons why this is <br />so, one reason being the difference (or lag time) in <br />projecting live births versus existing population. Orange <br />County saw a period of rapid residential development in the <br />mid -80's (the majority of which occurred in the city school <br />district). Many of those units are just now coming on line, <br />and a significant-number of these units are multi - family <br />units that have been occupied by young families. Such a <br />trend definitely has a delayed impact on school systems. <br />Net migration within county subareas also has a significant <br />effect on school enrollments. <br />A set of graphs to be presented serve to illustrate this <br />difference. <br />3. On the basis of data from both the County, Towns and <br />school systems, it appears that the geographic areas <br />most likely to add to the schools systems enrollment are <br />as follows: <br />A. To the north and west of Chapel Hill and Carrboro, in <br />the city school district. <br />B. In Transition areas located both northeast and south of <br />the Towns, in the city school district. <br />id <br />