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4 <br />ORANGE COUNTY PLANNING DEPARTMENT <br />MEMORANDUM <br />TO: SCHOOLS AD HOC COMMITTEE <br />FROM: DAVID STANCIL <br />Enrollment Trends Subcommittee <br />DATE: MAY 16, 1990 <br />RE: ENROLLMENT PROJECTIONS AND TRENDS <br />On April 2, 1990, the Schools Ad Hoc Committee asked <br />a subgroup of five persons to analyze the question <br />of enrollment projections and trends for the County's two <br />school systems. Members of this group were: Don Liner <br />(Institute of Government), Ray Green (Triangle J Council of <br />Governments), Neil Pederson (Chapel Hill - Carrboro Schools), <br />Ralph Compton (Orange County Schools), and Rod Vissor and <br />myself of County staff. <br />The charge of this subcommittee was to: <br />1) to consider the County's demographic makeup in light of <br />the state's enrollment projections. <br />2) recommend a working group of 10 -year projections by <br />grade (either the state's projections or locally - <br />generated). <br />3) provide information about specific geographic areas where <br />the enrollment is most volatile. <br />On April 9, the Subcommittee met to discuss these matters. <br />Three members of the group (minus the schools <br />representatives) also met subsequently on May 10 to prepare <br />documentation. <br />After consideration of the state's projections, other <br />possible avenues, and the factors which affect enrollment <br />trends, the Subcommittee has come to the following <br />recommendations: <br />1. That the enrollment projections provided by the State of <br />North Carolina Department of Public Instruction are the <br />most feasible to use. <br />In general, the subgroup felt that it would be <br />impossible, on such a scale as.necessary to look at the two <br />systems, to come up with a better set of projections. The <br />1 <br />