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23 <br /> Figure 11. Difference Between May 2017 Unemployment Rate and Lowest May <br /> Unemployment Rate in Previous Recovery Cycle (% point). <br /> .A..5 <br /> 1 <br /> 1\ \1N \N. „In <br /> 2 <br /> ��a joss ��\ oo <y. 6,0,3. �. \\ �® s,e, do <br /> 0 \64Q �„ate ��e �e ,z,\* e �.�” ear c (s2',., �° ��\Q \;\"` <br /> Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. <br /> and after the Great Recession. So Charlotte's current unemployment rate may not be so low— <br /> relative to the previous cycle's low—as it appears. Supporting this argument is that Charlotte's <br /> current(May 2017)unemployment rate is very similar to the unemployment rate of its sister <br /> rapid-growth region, Raleigh (4.0%versus 3.8%). <br /> Hickory and Winston-Salem's relatively low jobless rates may be driven by another <br /> factor— excessively slow or negative growth in the labor force. Between May 2010 and May <br /> 2017, Winston-Salem's labor force grew only 1.2%, while Hickory's declined by 3.3%. Slow or <br /> negative growth in the labor force can be caused by workers without jobs giving up on job <br /> searches, therefore not qualifying as officially unemployed by the definition of the headline <br /> unemployment rate. If these individuals were included as unemployed, the regions'jobless rates <br /> would be higher. Hence, among the four regions with current jobless rates well below their <br /> lows of the previous growth cycle, Burlington appears to have made the most progress. <br /> Key Conclusions <br /> Based on both national and state trends, it is expected economic growth will continue in <br /> 2017 and into 2018. In North Carolina, real GDP growth in both years will be near 2%, between <br /> 70,000 and 75,000 net new payroll jobs will be added each year, and progress on reducing the <br /> headline unemployment rate will be minor for the state as well as for most of the state's regions. <br /> 12 <br />