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21 <br /> National real GDP growth began slowly in 2017, rising only 1.4% on an annualized basis <br /> in the first quarter of 2017. However, forecasts by both the Federal Reserve and the <br /> Congressional Budget Office predict annual growth of between 1.7% and 2.3%in 2017 and <br /> 1.7% and 2.4%in 2018.9 Even the Trump Administration, which has been more optimistic <br /> about economic growth forecasts, sees the economy expanding at rates near this range, <br /> specifically 2.3%in 2017 and 2.5%in 2018.1° Therefore, it is reasonable to accept the CBO and <br /> Federal Reserve ranges for North Carolina and use a midpoint for each year, resulting in <br /> forecasted annual growth rates of real state GDP of 2% in 2017 and 2.1% in 2018. <br /> North Carolina's unemployment rate was traditionally lower than the national <br /> unemployment rate. For example, from 1976 to 2000, the state's jobless rate averaged 1.4 <br /> percentage points under the U.S.jobless rate. However, likely as a result of the economic <br /> impacts of globalization on small-town and rural regions of the state, this differential has <br /> changed in the 21st century, and North Carolina's unemployment rate has averaged higher than <br /> the national rate. Since 2014, the state's jobless rate has averaged 0.2 percentage points higher <br /> than the national rate. <br /> Figure 10. Long-Term Trends in the North Carolina Headline Unemployment Rate (%). <br /> unemployment rate <br /> L <br /> 10- �f <br /> 7.5- <br /> fro.) <br /> ( r,S4 bL •Lr., y <br /> \T"\ <br /> 2.5- <br /> 2 <br /> 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004 2008 2012 2016 <br /> Month <br /> Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics <br /> 9 Congressional Budget Office,An Update to the Budget and Economic Outlook:2017-2027,Washington, DC,June <br /> 29,2017; Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Open Market Committee Projections, <br /> Washington, DC, March 15,2017. <br /> to Office of Management and Budget, Budget of the U.S. Government, Fiscal Year 2018:A New Foundation for <br /> American Greatness,Washington, DC, May 23,2017. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects the exact <br /> same real GDP growth rates for 2017 and 2018 as the Trump Administration (IMF, World Economic Outlook <br /> Update, Washington, DC,January 16,2017). <br /> 10 <br />