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10 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2016-17 School Year-Orange County Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2016-2017 in that given year.The second column for each <br /> year includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to <br /> the actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2016-17 Membership <br /> Actual 2016 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 3293 3699 H406 3622 H329 3567 H274 3274 L19 3325 H32 <br /> Middle 1724 1853 H129 1785 H61 1824 H100 1746 H22 1743 H19 <br /> High 2446 2449 H3 2429 L17 2468 H22 2540 H94 2504 H58 <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate (Change) Pg. 39 <br /> Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over Next 10 Years <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Year <br /> Projection 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 <br /> Made: <br /> Elementary 1.18% 1.44% 1.11% 0.92% 0.91% 1.31% 1.30% 0.55% 0.80% 0.51% <br /> Middle 1.59% 1.58% 1.15% 0.82% 0.95% 1.64% 1.42% 0.09% 0.67% 0.36% <br /> High 1.60% 1.27% 1.22% 0.93% 0.72% 1.43% 1.35% 0.39% 0.56% 0.22% <br /> E. Student/Housing Generation Rate (No Change) Pg. 42 <br /> SCHOOL ADEQUATE PUBLIC FACILITIES ORDINANCE STATUS <br /> (based on future year Student Membership Projections) <br /> CHAPEL HILL/CARRBORO SCHOOL DISTRICT <br /> Elementary School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 105% LOS standard(current LOS is 95.5%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, <br /> but remain positive (average -0.91%per year compared to 1.24% over the past 10 <br /> years). <br /> C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Elementary <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> Middle School Level <br /> A. Does not currently exceed 107% LOS standard (current LOS is 96.1%). <br /> B. The projected growth rate at this level is expected to decrease over the next 10 years, <br /> but remain positive (average-0.95% compared to an average of 1.28% over the past <br /> 10 years). <br /> C. Similar to last year,projections are not showing a need for an additional Middle <br /> School in the 10-year projection period. <br /> ii <br />