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80 <br /> Orange County Transit Plan April 25, 2017 <br /> Figure 5.7-1. Cash balances in Orange County and Durham County(YOE) <br /> >200,000,000 <br /> Durlharn County o Orange County <br /> 5 150,000,000 - <br /> >i00,000,000 <br /> 550.000.00 <br /> __ _ realized, or project costs may exceed estimates. Each of these <br /> could occur at different times in the course of implementing the <br /> As described above, this is a fiscally constrained plan using Plan, resulting in different mitigation strategies available to <br /> reasonably conservative assumptions. The key financial address the risks. <br /> assumptions are regularly evaluated in order to assess the <br /> extent to which the plan is susceptible to these assumptions In addition to plan level analysis, it is also good practice to <br /> not being fully met due to external risk factors. The key assess key risks for specific projects. For example, at this stage <br /> identified risk factors are: of project development for the D-O LRT Project, some <br /> mitigation strategies are already included, such as a 30% cost <br /> • Federal funding contingency in the D-O LRT Project cost and the assumption of <br /> • State funding conservative long-term lending rates. <br /> • Local sales tax forecast <br /> Our other available mitigation strategies that have been <br /> • Project cost overruns identified include: <br /> Though the current assumptions are reasonably conservative, <br /> there are risks that not all the forecasted revenues will be fully • Design changes to reduce project cost <br /> Final Page 56 of 65 <br />