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17 <br /> The National Economy: Are Happy Days Here Again? <br /> What a difference a month made. In the four weeks after the 2016 elections, the stock <br /> market (measured by the Dow-Jones Industrial Average) soared 7%, close to the milestone <br /> 20,000 level. To put this number in context, at the bottom of the Great Recession the Dow-Jones <br /> average was 6600, having lost over half its value during that historic downturn. <br /> The stock market has always been viewed as a barometer of the economy, rising when <br /> economic fundamentals suggest improvement and falling when challenges pull the economy <br /> down. So has the outlook for the economy suddenly and dramatically improved, and if so, why? <br /> A Look at 2016 <br /> Before answering these questions, a review of the economy's track record in 2016 is <br /> presented. Table 1 shows the national economy's performance on several key variables. Real <br /> GDP is the broadest measure of the economy, as it combines the output of all sectors of the <br /> economy—including goods and services — into one number. It improved in 2016 and actually <br /> accelerated in the second half of the year. Still, the growth rates in real GDP in both the years <br /> since the Great Recession (2009-2015) and in 2016 have been below the historical average <br /> (1960-2009). <br /> There are similar conclusions for the four labor market (labor force, payroll jobs, labor <br /> productivity, real wage rate) measures. Each improved in 2016 but —with the exception of the <br /> 2 <br />