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12 <br /> WA <br /> VIII <br /> � aro <br /> � I �0 I� i 1�IIIIII� �� <br /> THE NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMIC OUTLOOK, 3rd QUARTER 2017 <br /> Prepared by Dr. Michael L. Walden,William Neal Reynolds Distinguished Professor, <br /> Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics,North Carolina State University <br /> Contact Methods:phone: 919-219-8923, e-mail: michael walden(aancsu.edu <br /> TEN NORTH CAROLINA ECONOMC HEADLINES FOR 2017 AND 2018 <br /> 1. Sectors leading growth in the state economy during the current recovery have been <br /> professional and business services,information, and leisure and food services,while the <br /> state's manufacturing sector continues to shift out of non-durable production to durable <br /> production. <br /> 2. The pace of job growth in North Carolina has exceeded the pace of national job growth in <br /> six of the last seven years. <br /> 3. While the headline unemployment rate for North Carolina has fallen to under 5%, a <br /> broader measure including underemployed workers and individuals who have left the labor <br /> force is still above 9%. <br /> 4. Gains in labor productivity in North Carolina have lagged national gains. <br /> 5. North Carolina's average wage rates—after adjusting for inflation— have only increased <br /> 3.3%since 2009,lower than the national gain of 3.6%. <br /> 6. The "hollowing-out" of the job market—meaning fastest gains occurring for high-paying <br /> and low-paying jobs—has been stronger in the North Carolina than in the nation. <br /> 7. The state's large metros—Charlotte and Raleigh—continue to be fast-growing and have <br /> accounted for almost two-thirds of total job growth in the state since 2009. <br /> 8. Real Gross Domestic Product in North Carolina will expand 2% in 2017 and 2.1% <br /> in 2018, the same rates as in the nation. <br /> 9. The annual average state unemployment rate will fall 0.3 percentage points in 2017 <br /> and 0.1 percentage points in 2018. Statewide,payroll jobs will increase by 75,000 in <br /> 2017 and by 70,000 in 2018. <br /> 10. A majority of North Carolina's metropolitan regions are at, or close to, their <br /> expected lowest unemployment rate of the current recovery cycle. <br /> 1 <br />