2017-538-E Co. Mgr. - Management Partners for expenditure, revenue analysis of County's current budget

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DocuSign Envelope ID:9481C8DE-D232-4BFE-A7DF-F240644DFF63 Activity 1—Start Project Management Partners will begin this project with a careful learning phase, starting with a planning meeting with County managers to ensure a clear understanding of the County's objectives for the long- term forecast model.The purpose of the meeting is to finalize the proposed scope of work and business concerns giving rise to the project so the plan of work and schedule can be precisely tailored to Orange County's needs. During this initial meeting, Management Partners will discuss the schedule and data requirements for this assignment.Throughout the project Management Partners will keep the County Manager informed of progress, observations, and initial recommendations. Activity 2—Prepare Draft Long-Term Financial Forecast During this activity, Management Partners will prepare a long-term forecast for the County, using County data.The financial forecast includes the components detailed below. » Identify baseline cost assumptions.The baseline cost assumptions will include those pertaining to remaining competitive in the labor marketplace, meeting funding requirements for pension commitments or other legal obligations, internal service fund levels that lead to timely replacement, reserves, and other major factors.The expenditure forecast will include trend data. » Identify baseline revenue assumptions.The baseline revenue assumptions will include all major existing revenue sources along with the identification of risk factors pertaining to any of those sources. The revenue forecast will include trend data. Special attention will be paid to any specific restrictions associated with special revenue funds. » Create model scenarios.The forecast will have model scenarios, including a baseline and scenarios with different sets of assumptions. Scenarios above the baseline will include unmet needs that have been quantified by the County, such as capital, maintenance, internal support and service level increases. Management Partners will develop a draft and then review it in person with management staff to refine and validate the assumptions. All model data will be tied back to County source documents and explanations of the assumptions that underlie the model. After reviewing the model with the County, the draft model will be refined, and a final model will be developed suitable for presentation. Activity 3—Report Results Management Partners will prepare a draft memorandum describing the results of the forecast. Management Partners will meet with County staff to review the memorandum in detail and will then prepare a final version of the memorandum and forecast. Activity 4—Support Implementation The reports and models produced by Management Partners will become tools for setting priorities and for developing work plans. County staff will be trained on all of the capabilities of the model with the expectation that the staff will own and begin using the model as a daily tool.To facilitate this, Management Partners will plan several hours of training and provide full documentation. Briefings and Presentation Management Partners shall be prepared to conduct briefings on both the expenditure and revenue analysis and the long range plan to the seven members of the Board of Orange County Commissioners. These briefings may be done individually or in several small groups. Management Partners shall also be