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Attachment 4 ^_
<br /> Debt Affordability Analysis ORANGE COUNTY
<br /> NORTH CAROLINA
<br /> 2017 CIP Alternative #2 Debt - No Tax Adjustment
<br /> A B C D E F G H I J K L M N 0 P
<br /> Debt
<br /> Proposed CIP and CIP General Fund Federal Internal Rogers Road Revenue from Estimated
<br /> Existing Debt GO Referendum Operating Budgeted Debt QSCB Service Cost Sharing Total Revenues Surplus/ Prior Tax Equiv. Capital Reserve Adjusted Surplus/ Incremental Tax Capital Reserve
<br /> FY Service Debt Impact Total Service Subsidy' Vehicle Fund Agreement' Available (Deficit) (Column 0) Utilized (Deficit) Equivalent Fund Balance
<br /> 2017 26,132,576 - 26,132,576 25,879,488 332,068 282,125 - 26,493,682 361,106 361,106 361,106
<br /> 2018 25,562,017 817,013 26,379,030 25,879,488 299,182 283,263 274,085 26,736,019 356,988 356,988 718,094
<br /> 2019 24,272,270 7,089,118 31,361,388 25,879,488 265,940 283,202 272,687 26,701,317 (4,660,071) (718,094) (3,941,977) -
<br /> 2020 22,926,315 9,637,095 32,563,410 25,879,488 232,697 285,422 267,667 26,665,274 (5,898,136) (5,898,136)
<br /> 2021 21,870,917 15,354,591 37,225,508 25,879,488 199,455 123,096 262,646 26,464,685 (10,760,823) (10,760,823)
<br /> 2022 21,117,095 16,150,622 37,267,716 25,879,488 166,212 122,451 257,626 26,425,778 (10,841,939) (10,841,939)
<br /> 2023 16,592,626 21,061,062 37,653,688 25,879,488 132,970 122,760 252,605 26,387,824 (11,265,864) (11,265,864)
<br /> 2024 12,826,703 20,459,174 33,285,876 25,879,488 99,727 - 247,585 26,226,801 (7,059,075) (7,059,075)
<br /> 2025 9,597,322 19,669,143 29,266,465 25,879,488 66,485 242,565 26,188,538 (3,077,927) (3,077,927) -
<br /> 2026 7,160,699 19,067,292 26,227,991 25,879,488 33,242 237,544 26,150,275 (77,716) (77,716)
<br /> 2027 7,843,931 18,465,440 26,309,371 25,879,488 - 232,524 26,112,012 (197,359) (197,359) -
<br /> 2028 2,942,835 17,863,589 20,806,424 25,879,488 227,504 26,106,992 5,300,568 5,300,568 5,300,568
<br /> 2029 2,645,877 17,370,915 20,016,792 25,879,488 222,483 26,101,972 6,085,179 6,085,179 11,385,747
<br /> 2030 2,105,800 16,877,241 18,983,041 25,879,488 217,027 26,096,515 7,113,474 7,113,474 18,499,221
<br /> 2031 1,595,765 16,384,595 17,980,360 25,879,488 212,019 26,091,507 8,111,147 8,111,147 26,610,368
<br /> 2032 1,154,868 15,891,949 17,046,817 25,879,488 207,011 26,086,499 9,039,682 9,039,682 35,650,051
<br /> 2033 1,103,660 15,399,303 16,502,963 25,879,488 202,003 26,081,491 9,578,528 9,578,528 45,228,578
<br /> 2034 - 14,906,658 14,906,658 25,879,488 196,995 26,076,483 11,169,825 11,169,825 56,398,404
<br /> 2035 14,414,012 14,414,012 25,879,488 191,987 26,071,475 11,657,463 11,657,463 68,055,867
<br /> 2036 13,921,366 13,921,366 25,879,488 186,979 26,066,467 12,145,101 12,145,101 80,200,968
<br /> 2037 13,428,720 13,428,720 25,879,488 181,971 26,061,459 12,632,739 12,632,739 92,833,707
<br /> 2038 12,530,074 12,530,074 25,879,488 - 25,879,488 13,349,414 13,349,414 106,183,121
<br /> 2039 8,623,172 8,623,172 25,879,488 25,879,488 17,256,317 17,256,317 123,439,438
<br /> 2040 6,880,209 6,880,209 25,879,488 25,879,488 18,999,279 18,999,279 142,438,717
<br /> 2041 3,534,518 3,534,518 25,879,488 25,879,488 22,344,970 22,344,970 164,783,687
<br /> 2042 2,844,245 2,844,245 25,879,488 25,879,488 23,035,244 23,035,244 187,818,931
<br /> 2043 - - 25,879,488 25,879,488 25,879,488 25,879,488 - 213,698,419
<br /> Total Tax Effect 0.00
<br /> Total 207,451,276 338,641,116 546,092,392 Total (718,094)
<br /> i Reduced 6.95/.and beyond due to Federal Sequestration
<br /> 'The County has an Interlocal Agreement with the Town of Chapel Hill and Town of Carrboro to repay 43%and 14%of the debt service associated with the Rogers Road portion of the County's 20171FC,respectively.
<br /> ■ FY 2018 Value of a Penny: $1,781,692 ■ Note: Without a tax increase, the County is forecasted to have
<br /> shortfalls from FY 2019 to 2027 totaling $53,120,815.
<br /> ■ Assumed FY 2019 & Beyond Growth Rate: 1.70%
<br /> DAVENPORT&COMPANY
<br /> June 13,2017 Orange County, NC 20
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