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STUDENT MEMBERSHIP PROJECTIONS <br /> PROJECTION TYPE DESCRIPTION 1 CHARACTERISTICS FORMULA ASSUMPTIONS <br /> Tischler Linear(OCS& Mathematical formula;straight line projection y=((c*b)*x)+b Historical growth is reflected in projected growth <br /> CHCCS) y--projected population;e=historical annual change;b=base year;x=projection years <br /> BYM+(BY[+5(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYMISL Base year growth reflects 10-Year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school 0 6 increase in BYI of 5 every other year reflects <br /> (OCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYMr ensuing year membership; ,middle,hi year; loSL=e s fatal increases in housing growth; reflects buildout <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year <br /> member by school level constraints <br /> BYM+(BYI-15(n))=EYM EYM*%SL=EYM/SL Base year growth reflects 10-year average; <br /> BYM=base year 2nd month membership;BYI=year student membership increment <br /> OCP Linear Wave Mathematical linear with percent variation among school decrease in BY]of 15 until school year 2{)10-2011 <br /> (CHCCS) levels;reflects progressing waves of membership base;EYM=ensuing year membership;n=projection year;%SL=ale of total reflects decreases in housing growth; reflects <br /> membership per school level(i.e.elementary,middle,high);EYMISL=ensuing year buildout constraints <br /> member by school level Y <br /> r� <br /> n <br /> Kn=kn.1+(kn.1*0.01) <br /> CD <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 3 years for each a=(E Gn 1 g,1)13 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the F~� <br /> 3-Year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=3 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-;(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year I <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership ¢ <br /> fD <br /> K.=k n-i+(kn-1*0.01) a <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 CD CD <br /> advancement rate over the previous 5 years for each a=(E Gn 1 gn.1)15 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the <br /> 5 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=5 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same C <br /> CHCCS) projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n•1(a) percentage of students in each grade level <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year �• <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average ro <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br /> CD <br /> n <br /> Kn=kn,1+(kn.l*0.01) O <br /> Mathematical formula that computes the average n=1 <br /> advancement rate over the previous 10 years for each a=(E Gn 1 9,1)110 Assumes a 1%annual growth rate for the d <br /> 10 year Cohort(OCS& grade level and then uses each rate to calculate n=10 kindergarten grade level; assumes the same <br /> CHCCS) <br /> O projected membership by school level;an assumed b=g n-t(a) percentage of students in each grade level ■S (� <br /> r.. <br /> kindergarten membership is based on birth records K=kindergarten membership;n=given school year;G=given grade's graduate to the next level each year <br /> and/or historical growth rates membership(other than kindergarten);g=previous grade's membership;a=average <br /> advancement rate;b=projected membership <br />