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Debt Affordability Analysis ORANGE COUNTY
<br /> NORTH CAROLINA
<br /> 2017 CIP Alternative #1 Debt - No Tax Adjustment
<br /> A B C D E F G H I J K L M N 0
<br /> Debt Service Requirements Revenue Available for DS Debt Service Cash Flow Surplus D-
<br /> ProposedClPand CIP General Fund Federal Internal Revenue from Estimated
<br /> Existing Debt GO Referendum Operating Budgeted Debt QSCB Service Total Revenues Surplus/ Prior Tax Equiv. Capital Reserve Adjusted Surplus/ Incremental Tax Capital Reserve
<br /> FY Service Debt Impact Total Service Subsidy' Vehicle Fund Available (Deficit) (Column N) Utilized (Deficit) Equivalent Fund Balance
<br /> 2017 26,132,576 - 26,132,576 25,879,488 332,068 282,125 26,493,682 361,106 361,106 361,106
<br /> 2018 25,562,017 1,182,480 26,744,497 25,879,488 299,182 283,263 26,461,934 (282,563) (282,563) - 78,543
<br /> 2019 24,272,270 7,378,024 31,650,294 1 25,879,488 265,940 283,202 26,428,630 (5,221,664) (78,543) (5,143,121) -
<br /> 2020 22,926,315 10,268,213 33,194,528 1 25,879,488 232,697 285,422 26,397,608 (6,796,920) (6,796,920)
<br /> 2021 21,870,917 16,404,439 38,275,357 1 25,879,488 199,455 123,096 26,202,039 (12,073,318) (12,073,318)
<br /> 2022 21,117,095 18,278,856 39,395,9511 25,879,488 166,212 122,451 26,168,152 (13,227,799) (13,227,799)
<br /> 2023 16,592,626 23,961,699 40,554,324 1 25,879,488 132,970 122,760 26,135,218 (14,419,106) (14,419,106)
<br /> 2024 12,826,703 23,282,478 36,109,1811 25,879,488 99,727 - 25,979,216 (10,129,965) (10,129,965)
<br /> 2025 9,597,322 22,603,258 32,200,579 1 25,879,488 66,485 25,945,973 (6,254,606) (6,254,606)
<br /> 2026 7,160,699 21,924,037 29,084,736 1 25,879,488 33,242 25,912,731 (3,172,005) (3,172,005)
<br /> 2027 7,843,931 21,244,816 29,088,747 25,879,488 - 25,879,488 (3,209,259) (3,209,259) -
<br /> 2028 2,942,835 20,565,596 23,508,430 25,879,488 25,879,488 2,371,058 2,371,058 2,371,058
<br /> 2029 2,645,877 19,995,553 22,641,430 25,879,488 25,879,488 3,238,058 3,238,058 5,609,116
<br /> 2030 2,105,800 19,425,509 21,531,310 25,879,488 25,879,488 4,348,178 4,348,178 9,957,295
<br /> 2031 1,595,765 18,855,466 20,451,232 25,879,488 25,879,488 5,428,257 5,428,257 15,385,551
<br /> 2032 1,154,868 18,285,423 19,440,291 25,879,488 25,879,488 6,439,198 6,439,198 21,824,749
<br /> 2033 1,103,660 17,159,780 18,263,440 25,879,488 25,879,488 7,616,049 7,616,049 29,440,798
<br /> 2034 - 16,607,793 16,607,793 25,879,488 25,879,488 9,271,695 9,271,695 38,712,493
<br /> 2035 16,055,807 16,055,807 25,879,488 25,879,488 9,823,681 9,823,681 48,536,174
<br /> 2036 15,503,821 15,503,821 25,879,488 25,879,488 10,375,667 10,375,667 58,911,841
<br /> 2037 14,951,835 14,951,835 25,879,488 25,879,488 10,927,654 10,927,654 69,839,495
<br /> 2038 14,399,848 14,399,848 25,879,488 25,879,488 11,479,640 11,479,640 81,319,135
<br /> 2039 10,456,515 10,456,515 25,879,488 25,879,488 15,422,973 15,422,973 96,742,108
<br /> 2040 8,453,847 8,453,847 25,879,488 25,879,488 17,425,642 17,425,642 114,167,750
<br /> 2041 4,816,418 4,816,418 25,879,488 25,879,488 21,063,070 21,063,070 135,230,820
<br /> 2042 3,492,145 3,492,145 25,879,488 25,879,488 22,387,344 22,387,344 157,618,164
<br /> 2043 - - 25,879,488 25,879,488 25,879,488 25,879,488 183,497,652
<br /> Total Tax Effect 0.004
<br /> Total 207,451,276 385,553,656 593,004,931 Total (361,106)
<br /> 'Reduced 6.9%and beyond due to Federal Sequestration
<br /> • FY 2018 Value of a Penny: $1,781,692 ■ Note: Without a tax increase, the County is forecasted to have
<br /> shortfalls from FY 2019 to 2027 totaling $74,426,098.
<br /> • Assumed FY 2019 & Beyond Growth Rate: 1.70%
<br /> DAVENPORT&COMPANY
<br /> May 9,2017 Orange County, NC 23
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