Agenda - 05-02-2017 - 8-a - Minutes

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14 1 yield this afternoon was 2.18%. Local entities of course have to borrow at a higher rate. 2 From now to 2062 is 45 years. During the most recent 45 years, the 10-year Treasury yield has 3 fallen as low as 1.37% and soared as high as 15.84%. I urge the Board to critically evaluate 4 Davenport's interest-rate assumptions and — even more important—to obtain a sensitivity 5 analysis (very easy to perform) that reports for each increase of one percent in their assumed 6 rates, by how much more money the estimated nine hundred million dollar financing cost will 7 further rise. Add interest-rate risk to the list of project risks. 8 9 I also call the Board's attention to Davenport's use of ten significant figures in stating a total 10 dollar cost of 3 billion, 302 million, 320 thousand. This is greater precision than one part in a 11 billion. Please do not allow this presumptuous display of precision lull you into thinking that the 12 estimate has anywhere near that degree of accuracy. 13 14 When I moved to Chapel Hill 48 years ago, I came from a job to which I commuted happily by 15 rail. As a 26-year member of the Sierra Club, I have long favored public transportation in 16 general and light rail in particular. I voted for the transportation bond. But I am fully convinced 17 that the paltry contribution that this particular light rail project might make to the citizens of 18 Orange County is not worth its large, growing, and increasingly uncertain cost. 19 20 Melissa McCullough provided a hand out, and said she is representing herself and the 21 Sierra Club in support of the LRT. 22 Kimberly Brewer said she is an Orange County resident, and respects that people fall on 23 all sides of this issue. She said she does not support light rail because of the costs; its limited 24 scope of service; and due to the fact that things have changed since the referendum. She said 25 the transit plan will either accomplish LRT or BRT, but not both. She said buses will serve more 26 people and employers at a lower cost, and she sees it as the wise decision. 27 Dory McMillan is a senior at UNC, and works at Community Empowerment Fund. She 28 supports light rail, as access to public transportation is a critical need for empowering people 29 out of poverty. 30 Joan Guilkey said she is against light rail. She said she is greatly in favor of a 31 comprehensive transit system. She said she voted for the transit tax in 2012, but cannot 32 support LRT as it will take all available funds for transportation, while serving only a small 33 portion of the community. She said the plan is too risky. 34 Bonnie Hauser said in 2012, 40,000 additional bus hours were promised, but the current 35 plan does not reflect this. She said the current plan is slower and more expensive. She said 36 GoTriangle found over$1 billion to fund LRT, but failed to find $30 million to fund the north- 37 south BRT. She said the new plan adds additional debt, putting the County at risk in many 38 areas, and when the LRT is completed most people will still need cars. She implored the 39 Commissioners to say no to LRT, and to create a better plan. 40 Del Snow said she is against light rail. She said every single developer of dense 41 housing, in the focus areas, built there based on the promise of connectivity through extensive 42 bus service. She said those who moved into these properties on the MLK transit corridor did so 43 based on the promise of comprehensive BRT. She said the BRT corridor provides the 44 spectrum of diversity needed along a transit line, and is within the walk radius of at least six 45 mobile home parks, two subsidized housing developments, middle class neighborhoods, luxury 46 apartments, shopping, student housing, etc. She supports stopping the LRT, and exclusively 47 pursuing the BRT. 48 Julie McClintock said she supported the original light rail project years ago. She said 49 this is a momentous decision before the Board that could tie up significant Country resources 50 for years to come. She reviewed the following comments: