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205 <br /> REVENUE OUTLOOK » Durham and Orange County Article 43 Tax Collections <br /> Chart 8: Rising Incomes Will Fuel Spending Chart 9: Low Industrial Diversity Risk to Growth <br /> Disposable personal income, % Public sector share in total payrolls, %,2015 <br /> 8 60 <br /> —Orange Durham —U.S. <br /> 7 50 - <br /> //,ww 40 - <br /> 5 --__\ 30 - — <br /> -I, ' <br /> 4 20 - <br /> '' 10 - - <br /> 3 <br /> 0 <br /> 2 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I Orange Person Chatham North Durham <br /> 15 20F 25F 30F County County County Carolina County <br /> Sources:BEA,Moody's Analytics Sources:BLS,Moody's Analytics <br /> center Lessens the overall pool for coLLec- nomic impact of buiLding.New housing con- Strong population gains,particularly in <br /> tions,increasing seasonal variations,and struction requires significant expenditures on Durham County,are fueling robust demand. <br /> creating a more volatile revenue series. durable goods.This includes buiLding materi- The improving Labor market will aLso boost <br /> In addition to consumer activity,construc- aLs and the significant spending that goes into household formation in the near term,further <br /> tion plays an outsize role in determining sales furnishing a newly built house.HomebuiLd- supporting home sales.Its more dynamic <br /> tax collections.The model utilizes housing ing has picked up significantly over the past demographic profile will aLso help Durham <br /> completions to account for the positive eco- year,but there is further room for growth. County outperform throughout the forecast. <br /> MOODY'S ANALYTICS / Copyright©2016 4 <br />