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202 <br /> REVENUE OUTLOOK » Durham and Orange County Article 43 Tax Collections <br /> Revenue Outlook: Durham and Orange <br /> County Article 43 Tax Collections <br /> BY DAN WHITE, EFUAAMOONUAAFFULAND EMILY MANDEL <br /> The following revenue outlook links Durham and Orange County Article 43 sales tax collections to measures <br /> of underlying economic growth in an effort to better understand and anticipate future funding levels.A <br /> healthy labor market and strong income growth will fuel robust tax collections throughout the forecast. <br /> Collections will grow more strongly in Durham County because of stronger private-sector job and population <br /> gains. Orange County's large government presence will drive slower job creation and consequent collections. <br /> Regional economic outlook Lation growth will spur above-average gains Bay Area and Northeast draw firms to the <br /> North Carolina's economic growth has in higher-paying employment.Though much RTP(see Chart 4).For example,Cohera <br /> cooled considerably after a strong start to of this will continue to come in professional Medical is moving its headquarters to Ra- <br /> the year,though job gains still best the U.S. services and—despite recent struggles— Leigh from Pittsburgh and Arbiom is setting <br /> average and track those of the South.Ser- finance,an increasing share will come up a new research and development center <br /> vice-providing payrolls are expanding at a from tech. in Durham. <br /> heaLthy pace,although performance across The Research Triangle Park will remain Thanks to stiLL-Low interest rates and <br /> industries is uneven. Professional/business the backbone of North Carolina's high- heaLthy risk appetite,venture capitaL is being <br /> services and trade/transportation/utilities tech industry,an important growth engine put to work in North Carolina and helping <br /> are increasing at an above-average rate, throughout the forecast. In 2015 the state firms such as Bivarus and Windsor Circle <br /> Leisure/hospitality payrolls are contracting, ranked in the top 10 for growth in high tech, expand.North Carolina firms received more <br /> and financial service payrolls have LeveLed churning out net new jobs faster than Mas- than$700 million in venture capitaL over the <br /> off(see Charts 1 and 2).Less than haLf of in- sachusetts and CoLorado and only slightLy Last four quarters,up 40%from the prior <br /> dustries are contributing to job growth, but more sLowLy than California.The Durham four-quarter period and 10th highest in the <br /> a tighter job market is still Leading to wage and RaLeigh metro areas,which together nation.Startup incubators and accelerators <br /> gains(see Chart 3). house the RTP,accounted for nearly haLf of such as the Hamner Institutes for HeaLth <br /> Longer term,a generally good invest- the state's tech job gains Last year.A Large Sciences and the Triangle Startup Factory <br /> ment climate and faster than average popu- pool of talent and Lower costs than in the bode well for growth. <br /> Chart 1: Professional/Business Services Lead Chart 2: Banking and Tourism Hit the Brakes <br /> Professional/business services employment, %change yr ago North Carolina employment,the <br /> 6 475 222 <br /> 470 — — 220 <br /> 5 V 465 — <br /> 4 — r>.- AA A.• 460 — — 218 <br /> 3 `:�_ _ �� 455 — — 216 <br /> 450 — — 214 <br /> 2 , 445 — — 212 <br /> 440 — —Leisure/hospitality(L) <br /> —North Carolina —U.S. —All other NC industries <br /> 435 — —Financial activities(R) — 210 <br /> 0 I I I I I I I I I I I I I I 430 I I I I I I I I I I I 208 <br /> 13 14 15 16 14 15 16 <br /> Sources:BLS,Moody's Analytics Sources:BLS,Moody's Analytics <br /> MOODY'S ANALYTICS / Copyright©2016 1 <br />