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25 <br /> o Project feasibility is, in some respects, a subjective concept. While the current <br /> GoTriangle model projects that the Project will cash-flow, the margin for error is <br /> very small and a number of assumptions will need to materialize as modeled to <br /> avoid needing additional financial support in the future. <br /> o Given current projections for Project performance, Orange County cumulative <br /> cash balances are insufficient in certain years to properly insulate the County <br /> from potential future financial support requirements/requests. Of note on this <br /> observation, Durham County cumulative cash balances may be available to <br /> provide additional financial resources for Project underperformance. Clarity on <br /> this point is recommended. <br /> ➢ GoTriangle has identified the following mitigation strategies in an effort <br /> to insulate the counties from additional financial support in the event that <br /> the forecast assumptions do not materialize as projected: <br /> • Contingency in the project budget; Design changes to reduce <br /> project cost; Savings from property donations; Cost transfer to <br /> project partners; and new revenue. <br /> o Given the scope of the Project and current financial projections, Davenport is of <br /> the opinion that this Project will be a discussion item and consideration as part <br /> of the County's ongoing rating agency interactions. <br /> • As Local Government Commission ("LGC") approvals will be required for the planned <br /> non-TIFIA financings, a preliminary dialogue with LGC staff in the near future is <br /> recommended. <br /> • If interest and support for the Project are confirmed, the Orange County Board of <br /> County Commissioners should request a clear and concise explanation of its current <br /> commitments, future Project approvals and any opportunities/mechanisms for <br /> multilateral and unilateral Project modification/suspension/termination. <br /> PUBLIC COMMENT: <br /> Robert David said he has moved from being a supporter to this plan to becoming an <br /> opponent of it. He said there is a lot of money at stake, and more may be coming with <br /> unknown costs. He asked if there is any benefit to the County from the transit plan, as there <br /> are only three to four stops in all. He asked the BOCC to reject the plan as he now sees it, <br /> and asked that they consider if they want GoTriangle to be the financial manager of this plan. <br /> He encouraged the BOCC to establish a separate line of communication with the FTA. He <br /> thanked the BOCC for its openness. <br /> Paul Rockwell said the light rail is a beautiful dream that becomes a nightmare with the <br /> project costs and financial responsibility. He said these costs will be pushed onto the <br /> taxpayers. He said he is a strong supporter of public transportation, but not a supporter of light <br /> rail, and he asked the BOCC to follow Wake County's lead and to find other solutions that are <br /> more beneficial to Orange County. <br /> Maria Palmer asked the BOCC to support Light Rail, and highlighted some of the <br /> reasons why. <br /> Ken Larson said he came up with a graph to examine the probability of success for this <br /> project: receiving federal money- low; state funding at 10%- low; cost overruns- low; improved <br /> bus service across all of Orange County— low; reduce traffic- low; route will serve most transit <br /> dependent— low; improve environment- low. He said he does not support the project, and <br /> playing the funds on the slot machines in Vegas would give a better return. <br /> John Morris thanked the BOCC for commissioning the Davenport analysis. He said this <br /> plan is based on a lot of assumptions and risks, and all must go perfectly for things to work out <br />