Minutes 04-04-2017 - Laserfiche WebLink

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23 • The following major revenue and expenditure assumptions have been included in the financial model. Items listed in the parentheticals represent potential vulnerabilities that may arise: o Major Revenue Assumptions ➢ FTA New Starts Federal Funding (approval, timing, and amount) ➢ State Funding —10% of Capital & Operating Costs (approval, timing, and amount) ➢ TIFIA Funding(approval, timing, and amount) ➢ LOBs / GANs —DO LRT Funding(approval, timing, and amount) ➢ LOBs —State of Good Report (approval, timing, and amount) ➢ Transit District Revenues (realization of projected growth)DO LRT Fare Revenues(realization of projected growth) o Major Expenditure Assumptions DO LRT Capital Cost ➢ DO LRT Operating Cost ➢ Existing and Expansion Bus Costs ➢ Bus Rapid Transit ➢ Ongoing DO LRT Capital / Maintenance Costs (State of Good Repair) Article 43 Sales Tax Assumptions (Orange County) • There are currently three projection scenarios for the Orange County Article 43 Sales Tax under consideration: Moody's baseline scenario, Moody's pessimistic scenario, and Dr. Walden 2014 projections. Scenario 3 v9 C incorporates Moody's baseline projections. Projected Results (Scenario 3 v9 C) Orange County, NC 8 Overall Results —Adjusted Scale for Orange County Graph Projected Results (Scenario 3 v9 C) April 4, 2017 Orange County, NC 9 Overall Results — Uniform Scales for All Graphs Financial Model Observations, Key Drivers, and Risk Factors ( page 10) • In order to implement this Plan of Finance and access long term capital funding, GoTriangle will need to receive two investment grade credit ratings. In order to receive investment grade credit ratings, GoTriangle will need to be able to demonstrate: o Ability to maintain positive cash flows. o Ability to demonstrate minimum Debt Service Coverage levels. o Ability to manage the project. o Some minimum level of operating / capital reserves. • As GoTriangle, Durham County, and Orange County continue to evaluate the project and Plan of Finance, the following key drivers / risk factors may be considered: o Potential changes (positive or negative) in the DO LRT Capital Cost. o Approval, timing, and amount of FTA New Starts Federal Funding, State Funding, and TIFIA Funding. o Realization of assumed Transit District Revenues and DO LRT Fare Revenues. o Actual / revised estimates for DO LRT Operating Costs and ongoing DO LRT capital / maintenance costs. o Ability to fund existing and expansion bus service and Bus Rapid Transit.