Agenda - 04-18-2017 - 8-a - Minutes

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26 1 understand the potential of this LRT plan. He said he is supportive of the light rail plan, and the 2 benefits it will bring to the community. 3 Sam Gharbo said the shiny rails of the LRT are attracting our attention. He said fiscal 4 responsibility is important, and the BOCC should not go after the new and shiny rails. He said 5 there is so much more that can be done with this money. 6 Charles Humble said the Davenport report shows Durham County can afford this 7 project, but it is very risky for Orange County. He said LRT is a big win for Durham County, but 8 he sees very few benefits for Orange County, as the stations will be located on tax exempt UNC 9 property. He said taxpayers will be asked to assume a long term financial risk if the BOCC 10 approves this. 11 Ramona McGee said she works with the Southern Environmental Law Center (SELC), 12 who is supportive of the light rail project. She urged the BOCC to support the project. 13 14 Commissioner Burroughs referred to pages 8 and 9 of PowerPoint that discusses cash 15 flow balances, and said these balances are for the light rail system, but asked if this includes 16 the Bus Rapid Transit Plan (BRIP) 17 Mitch Brigulio said the cash flow balances include everything in the program, everything 18 at the top of page 4 of the PowerPoint presentation. 19 Commissioner Burroughs asked if the roughly $200,000 that would be in the cash 20 balance in 2048 is in 2048 dollars. 21 Ted Cole said the model itself is projecting the capital and operating costs associated 22 with these things. He said these are being grown out to dollars in the future, based on some 23 growth factor. He said the tax district revenues are growing based on the projection. He said 24 he would consider those dollars as being the net cash flow of those projected dollars. He said it 25 will be a small amount of money. 26 Commissioner Burroughs asked if margin of error is specifically very small for Orange 27 County, and that there is more cushion for Durham County. 28 Ted Cole said yes, based on all that has been reviewed, Orange County has a very 29 small margin of error. 30 Commissioner Burroughs asked if one way to deal with the low cash flow is to change 31 the cost sharing percentages. 32 Ted Cole said yes, that is one input in the model, which if adjusted, will shift the costs. 33 He said this has evolved over the past few weeks, along with restructuring the debt, and adding 34 in the state of good repair borrowings in the latter years. 35 Commissioner Burroughs said there seems to be difference of opinion about the 36 potential impact on the County's credit rating, and asked if there is more of a risk for Orange 37 County than Durham County. 38 Ted Cole said this is a very significant project, and impact on the credit rating does not 39 necessarily mean it is all negative. He said a big part of local government credit analysis is the 40 local economy, its strength and vibrancy. He said a project like this could improve the 41 economy. He said the potentially negative side is that it is reasonable for the BOCC to expect 42 that this project will be a part of the conversation of Orange County's credit rating moving 43 forward. He said as the financial plan gets firmed up, and as the credit gets better defined, the 44 affect on the County's credit rating will become clear. 45 Commissioner Burroughs said the Moody's forecast was discussed in the public 46 comments, as well as the expected increase in local sales tax, and asked if he had comments 47 on these items. 48 Ted Cole said Moody's data on this, on page 7, picks up with 2017 as a baseline year, 49 and it is growing off of that. He said the first year under the baseline there is 4.7% growth, 50 which evolves every year until 2045. He said what this model requires is that the County has