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22 <br /> 1 Ted Cole said the statement read by Commissioner McKee is on page 11 of the <br /> 2 PowerPoint, and "may be required" is a nod to the fact that Davenport does not know what the <br /> 3 credit is ultimately going to be. He said there is an expectation today that there will not be any <br /> 4 need for a formal support agreement between Orange County, Durham County, and <br /> 5 GoTriangle; but if the credit were to evolve to where such an agreement were needed, then that <br /> 6 is where "required" comes into play. He said it anticipates that the credit will be evolved, and if <br /> 7 there is a support agreement required to get the credit for GoTriangle, then Orange County <br /> 8 may be required to support it; and if not, then the County could decide to support. <br /> 9 Commissioner McKee said he would not want them to find themselves in court in 2032 <br /> 10 trying to define the word required. <br /> 11 Ted Cole said he understands, and when the time comes to develop the credit of <br /> 12 GoTriangle for the purposes of funding this project, the County will have great clarity on <br /> 13 whether it is required to support it or not. He said at this point the expectation is that there will <br /> 14 be no requirement, but the process has yet to be completed. <br /> 15 Chair Dorosin said should that time come, the County would be able to decide whether <br /> 16 or not to proceed. <br /> 17 Commissioner McKee said yes, but the County will be hundreds of millions of dollars in, <br /> 18 at that point. <br /> 19 <br /> 20 GoTriangle Financial Model <br /> 21 Major Revenue and Expenditure Assumptions <br /> 22 • The following major revenue and expenditure assumptions have been included in the <br /> 23 financial model. Items listed in the parentheticals represent potential vulnerabilities that <br /> 24 may arise: <br /> 25 o Major Revenue Assumptions <br /> 26 ➢ FTA New Starts Federal Funding (approval, timing, and amount) <br /> 27 ➢ State Funding —10% of Capital & Operating Costs (approval, timing, and <br /> 28 amount) <br /> 29 ➢ TIFIA Funding(approval, timing, and amount) <br /> 30 ➢ LOBs / GANs —DO LRT Funding(approval, timing, and amount) <br /> 31 ➢ LOBs —State of Good Report (approval, timing, and amount) <br /> 32 ➢ Transit District Revenues (realization of projected growth)DO LRT Fare <br /> 33 Revenues(realization of projected growth) <br /> 34 o Major Expenditure Assumptions DO LRT Capital Cost <br /> 35 ➢ DO LRT Operating Cost <br /> 36 ➢ Existing and Expansion Bus Costs <br /> 37 ➢ Bus Rapid Transit <br /> 38 ➢ Ongoing DO LRT Capital / Maintenance Costs (State of Good Repair) <br /> 39 <br /> 40 Article 43 Sales Tax Assumptions (Orange County) <br /> 41 <br /> 42 • There are currently three projection scenarios for the Orange County Article 43 Sales <br /> 43 Tax under consideration: Moody's baseline scenario, Moody's pessimistic scenario, and <br /> 44 Dr. Walden 2014 projections. Scenario 3 v9 C incorporates Moody's baseline <br /> 45 projections. <br /> 46 <br /> 47 Projected Results (Scenario 3 v9 C) Orange County, NC 8 Overall Results —Adjusted <br /> 48 Scale for Orange County Graph <br /> 49 <br />