Agenda - 04-18-2017 - 5-a - Presentation and Public Hearing on the Draft Orange County Transit Plan

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57 Orange County Transit Plan March 2017 Revision 2 years. Section 4 describes these projects and services, discussion purposes. Table ES-1 below compares the Tax unfunded priorities from the 2012 Plan, and additional District Revenues used to fund projects and services between expansion that would remain unfunded in this Plan. the 2012 Plan and this draft 2017 Plan. As a major project which serves both counties, the cost of As in the 2012 Plan, there remains uncertainty about whether construction, operations, and maintenance of the Durham- and how much state and federal funding will be available to Orange Light Rail Transit Project is shared between the two implement the services and projects in the 2017 Plan. However, county Plans using agreed upon percentage splits. In the 2012 those funding amounts will be known prior to entry into Plan, the split was approximately 77 percent Durham, 23 construction for any project, providing opportunity to reduce percent Orange.The parties are negotiating a new cost-split for project scope or revise the schedule, consider other funding several reasons: sources, or suspend the projects. • The scope of the D-0 LRT Project has been expanded. When evaluating the ability of the Tax District Revenue to The alignment now extends 0.6 miles further into accommodate potential reductions in state and federal funding Durham, with an additional station at North Carolina availability, it is important to assess the projected level of Central University borrowing. The projected borrowing capacity is linked directly • Changes to the alignment at the New Hope Creek to the assumptions about Tax District Revenue growth. In Crossing have extended the length of the alignment in accordance with industry standards, the 2017 Plan uses a baseline revenue forecast developed in late 2016 by Moody's Durham Analytics, a well-regarded economic analytics firm. In • A station proposed for Orange County, Meadowmont accordance with Federal Transit Administration (FTA) guidance, Station, has been replaced by Woodmont Station in the financial plan has also been evaluated using a downside Durham County forecast developed by the same firm, to understand the effects Representatives from Orange County, Durham County, and and potential mitigations that may be required to plan for less- GoTriangle have worked to achieve consensus on an than-expected sales tax growth. A detailed financial plan can appropriate cost-split.This Plan includes a prospective scenario be found in Section 5. Further explanation of the risks to the with Orange County's share of Tax District Revenues paying 18 financial health of the plan and the available mitigation percent of the local share of the Durham-Orange LRT Project strategies can be found in Section 5.4. costs, and 20 percent of the light rail operating costs. This This 2017 Plan comes at a pivotal time for Orange County and assumption does not represent an agreement or a the broader region. The Triangle region has grown significantly recommendation, but is included in this draft Plan for and is forecasted to continue growing. There also continues to Draft Document Public Review April 10, 2017 revision Page 3 of 49