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2 <br /> Financial Model Observations, Key Drivers, and Risk Factors ORANGE COUNTY <br /> NORTH CAROLINA <br /> • In order to implement this Plan of Finance and access long term capital funding, GoTriangle will need to receive two investment grade credit <br /> ratings. In order to receive investment grade credit ratings, GoTriangle will need to be able to demonstrate: <br /> — Ability to maintain positive cash flows. <br /> — Ability to demonstrate minimum Debt Service Coverage levels. <br /> — Ability to manage the project. <br /> — Some minimum level of operating/ capital reserves. <br /> • As GoTriangle, Durham County, and Orange County continue to evaluate the project and Plan of Finance, the following key drivers/ risk factors <br /> may be considered: <br /> — Potential changes (positive or negative) in the DO LRT Capital Cost. <br /> — Approval, timing, and amount of FTA New Starts Federal Funding, State Funding, and TIFIA Funding. <br /> — Realization of assumed Tax District Revenues and DO LRT Fare Revenues. <br /> — Actual / revised estimates for DO LRT Operating Costs and ongoing DO LRT capital / maintenance costs. <br /> — Ability to fund existing and expansion bus service and Bus Rapid Transit. <br /> DAVENPORT&COMPANY <br /> April 4,2017 Orange County, NC 9 <br />