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<br /> GoTriangle Financial Model ORANGE COUNTY
<br /> NORTH CAROLINA
<br /> Major Revenue / Expenditure Assumptions
<br /> Major Revenue and Expenditure Assumptions Article 43 Sales Tax Assumptions (Orange County)
<br /> ■ The following major revenue and expenditure assumptions have ■ There are currently three projection scenarios for the Orange
<br /> been included in the financial model. Items listed in the County Article 43 Sales Tax under consideration: Moody's baseline
<br /> parentheticals represent potential vulnerabilities that may arise: scenario, Moody's pessimistic scenario, and Dr. Walden 2014
<br /> - Major Revenue Assumptions projections.
<br /> - FTA New Starts Federal Funding (approval, timing, and - Scenario 3 v9 C incorporates Moody's baseline projections.
<br /> amount)
<br /> - State Funding - 10% of Capital & Operating Costs (approval, A B c D E F G
<br /> Fiscal Year Moody's Baseline Moody's Pessimistic Dr.Walden 2014
<br /> timing, and amount) Growth Rate Sales Tax Growth Rate Sales Tax Growth Rate Sales Tax
<br /> 2017 $6,687,816 $6,642,300 $6,534,140
<br /> - TIFIA Funding (approval, timing, and amount) 2018 4.70% 7,001,929 3.96% 6,905,222 5.60% 6,900,052
<br /> 2019 5.69% 7,400,189 4.95% 7,246,998 5.00% 7,245,055
<br /> - LOBs/ GANs - DO LRT Funding (approval, timing, and 2020 4.78% 7,753,837 4.04% 7,539,819 4.90% 7,600,063
<br /> amount) 2021 3.18% 8,000,493 2.44% 7,723,996 4.70% 7,957,266
<br /> 2022 3.24% 8,259,373 2.50% 7,916,893 4.70% 8,331,258
<br /> - LOBs - State of Good Report (approval timing and amount) 2023 4.07% 8,595,236 3.33% 8,180,371 4. 8,714,496
<br /> > > 2024 3.87% 8,927,860 3.13% 8,436,540 4.550%0% 9,106,648
<br /> 2025 3.34% 9,225,637 2.60% 8,655,637 4.40% 9,507,341
<br /> - Transit District Revenues (realization of projected growth) 2026 3.03% 9,505,611 2.30% 8,854,402 5.00% 9,982,708
<br /> 2027 3.07% 9,797,641 2.33% 9,061,045 5.00% 10,481,843
<br /> - DO LRT Fare Revenues (realization of projected growth) 2028 3.26% 10,117,042 2.52% 9,289,527 5.00% 11,005,935
<br /> 2029 3.53% 10,473,796 2.79% 9,548,508 5.00% 11,556,232
<br /> - Major Expenditure Assumptions 2030 3.59% 10,850,293 2.86% 9,821,239 5.00% 12,134,044
<br /> 2031 3.73% 11,255,018 2.99% 10,115,060 5.00% 12,740,746
<br /> - DO LRT Capital Cost 2032 3.71% 11,672,887 2.97% 10,415,919 5.00% 13,377,783
<br /> 2033 3.48% 12,079,677 2.75% 10,701,995 5.00% 14,046,672
<br /> - DO LRT Operating Cost 2034 3.50% 12,502,484 2.76% 10,997,559 5.00% 14,749,006
<br /> 2035 3.43% 12,931,545 2.69% 11,293,769 5.00% 15,486,456
<br /> - Existing and Expansion Bus Costs 2036 3.83% 13,427,146 3.09% 11,643,208 5.00% 16,260,779
<br /> 2037 4.05% 13,970,844 3.31% 12,028,700 5.00% 17,073,818
<br /> - Bus Rapid Transit 2038 3.92% 14,518,867 3.18% 12,411,722 5.00% 17,927,509
<br /> 2039 3.89% 15,083,325 3.15% 12,802,614 5.00% 18,823,884
<br /> - Ongoing DO LRT Capital / Maintenance Costs (State of Good 2040 3.89% 15,669,423 3.15% 13,205,556 5.00% 19,765,079
<br /> 2041 4.10% 16,311,515 3.36% 13,649,177 5.00% 20,753,332
<br /> Repair) 2042 4.01% 16,965,941 3.27% 14,096,006 5.00% 21,790,999
<br /> 2043 4.01% 17,646,412 3.27% 14,557,286 5.00% 22,880,549
<br /> 2044 4.09% 18,368,854 3.36% 15,045,771 5.00% 24,024,576
<br /> 2045 4.14% 19,129,984 3.41% 15,558,109 5.00% 25,225,805
<br /> 2046&Beyond 4.33% 19,958,152 3.59% 16,116,767 5.00% 26,487,096
<br /> DAVENPORT&COMPANY Source: GoTriangle Scenario 3 v9 C
<br /> April 4,2017 Orange County, INC
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