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9 <br /> 2017 SAPFOTAC Executive Summary <br /> I. Base Memorandum of Understanding <br /> A. Level of Service (No Change) Pg. 1 <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Elementary 105% 105% <br /> Middle 107% 107% <br /> High 110% 110% <br /> B. Building Capacity and Membership (Change) Pg. 2 <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Orange County <br /> School District School District <br /> Capacity Membership Increase from Capacity Membership Increase from <br /> Prior Year Prior Year <br /> Elementary 5829 5567 66 3694 3293 (25) <br /> Middle 2944 2829 (15) 2166 1724 (15) <br /> High 3875 3762 61 2439 2446 (23) <br /> C. Membership Date—November 15 (No Change) Pg.1 7 <br /> II. Annual Update to SAPFO System <br /> A. Capital Investment Plan (CIP) (No Change) Pg. 18 <br /> B. Student Membership Projection Methodology (No Change) Pg. 19 <br /> The average of 3, 5, and 10 year history/cohort survival, linear and arithmetic projection models. <br /> C. Student Membership Projections (Change) Pg. 29 <br /> Analysis of 5 Years of Projections for 2016-17 School Year — Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools <br /> (The first column for each year includes the student membership projection made for 2016-2017 in that given year.The second column for each year <br /> includes the number of students the projection was off compared to actual membership.An"L"indicates the projection was low compared to the <br /> actual,whereas an"H"indicates the projection was high compared to the actual.) <br /> Year Projection Made for 2016-17 Membership <br /> Actual 2016 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 2014-2015 2015-2016 <br /> Membership <br /> Elementary 5567 6026 H459 5837 H270 5845 H278 5662 H95 5552 L15 <br /> Middle 2829 2987 H158 3004 H175 2962 H133 2928 H99 2830 H1 <br /> High 3762 4018 H256 4016 H254 3893 H131 3798 H36 3757 L5 <br /> 1 <br />