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54 <br /> Section II <br /> D. Student Membership Growth Rate <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change— The updating of this section will be <br /> conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br /> Advisory Committee(SAPFOTAC) each year and referred to the BOCC for annual <br /> report certification. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and <br /> comments to the BOCC prior to certification. <br /> 2. Definition The annual percentage growth rate calculated from the projections <br /> resulting from the average of the five models represented by 10 year numerical <br /> membership projections by school level for each school district. This does not <br /> represent the year-by-year growth rate that may be positive or negative, but rather the <br /> average of the annual anticipated growth rates over the next 10 years. <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel HilUCarrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> See Attachment II.D.2 See Attachment II.D.2 <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions: Analysis of Existing Conditions: <br /> Chapel HilUCarrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> The membership figures and percentage growth on the The membership figures and percentage growth on the <br /> attachments show continued growth at each school level attachments show continued growth at each school level <br /> within the system. within the system. <br /> Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over next Projected Average Annual Growth Rate over next <br /> ten years: ten years: <br /> Year Projection 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- Year Projection 2012- 2013- 2014- 2015- 2016- <br /> Made: 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Made: 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 <br /> Elementary 1.18% 1.44% 1.11% 0.92% 0.91% Elementary 1.31% 1.30% 0.55% 0.80% 0.51% <br /> Middle 1.59% 1.58% 1.15% 0.82% 0.95% Middle 1.64% 1.42% 0.09% 0.67% 0.36% <br /> High 1.60% 1.27% 1.22% 0.93% 0.72% High 1.43% 1.35% 0.39% 0.56% 0.22% <br /> 5. Recommendation: Recommendation: <br /> Chapel HilUCarrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> Use statistics as noted. Use statistics as noted. <br /> 39 <br />