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44 <br /> Section II <br /> C. Student Membership Projections <br /> 1. Responsible Entity for Suggesting Change— The updating of this section will be <br /> conducted by the Planning Directors, School Representatives, and Technical <br /> Advisory Committee(SAPFOTAC) and referred to the BOCC for annual report <br /> certifications. Projections will be distributed to SAPFO partners for review and <br /> comments to the BOCC prior to certification. <br /> 2. Definition—The result of the average of the five student projection models <br /> represented by 10 year numerical membership projections by school level <br /> (Elementary, Middle, and High) for each school district(Chapel Hill/Carrboro School <br /> District and Orange County School District). <br /> 3. Standard for: Standard for: <br /> Chapel Hill Carrboro School District Orange County School District <br /> The 5 model average discussed in Section The 5 model average discussed in Section <br /> II.B (Student Projection Methodology) II.B (Student Projection Methodology) <br /> See Attachment II.C.4 See Attachment II.C.3 <br /> 4. Analysis of Existing Conditions <br /> The membership figures and percentage growth on the attachments show a decrease <br /> at the Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools' middle school level and at the Orange <br /> County Schools' elementary, middle and high school levels. The attachments show an <br /> increase at the Chapel Hill/Carrboro City Schools' elementary and high school levels. <br /> Chapel Hill/Carrboro Schools projected average annual growth rates for elementary <br /> and middle school levels have decreased slightly, but remain positive. The projected <br /> average annual growth rate at the high school level has increased. Future growth rates <br /> show positive growth at the elementary school level during the entire 10-year <br /> projection period. Middle and high school levels see mostly positive growth rates <br /> with only one year of negative growth for both levels in the 10-year projection period. <br /> Projected average annual growth rates for Orange County Schools have all decreased <br /> since the previous year. Orange County Schools' future growth rates show varying <br /> positive and negative growth in the 10 year projection period for the elementary, <br /> middle, and high school levels. Attachment II.C.3 and Attachment II.C.4 show year <br /> by year percent growth and projected level of service (LOS). The projection models <br /> 29 <br />